Friday

No luck yesterday with the 2 selections. Nothing for me today when looking at the cards it just felt generally poor stuff the closest I got to a selection was i'n the 1250 warwick mic aubin ran a respectable race last time and a similar run here gives him every chance however I'm also respectful of a few more here most notably flippo lippo who despite his questionable attitude he is still not badly treated.no selection today though.

Happy new year to all !!!! 

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Thursday

Decent run from yesterdays selection to finish 3rd and collect the ew money.
2 selections today at Taunton both races very competitive though.

300 tuanko 1/2pt ew 9/1 bog bigger available
330 art professor 1/2pt ew 14/1Bog

wednesday

No joy with yesterdays selection finishing 5^th will rate the race myself in time and see what I make of it from there.My initial thoughts on the lexus chase is that it will prove to be below the top grade 1 horses but again ill review before making any bigger decisions for the future.

Today’s racing looks very interesting but at the same time looks difficult from a betting point of view.Found the one selection and will leave it at that today because I wouldn’t be sharing much others don’t already know with the rest of today’s racing.

Newbury

245 the rainbow hunter 3/4 pt e/w 20/1 gen with bog bookmakers bigger is available

This is obviously a typically competitive Newbury handicap and due to the recent cold snap im sure we are going to see plenty races like this in the coming month or so.I don’t however think to many are going to be ahead of there mark here and the fact swing bill a horse I know well is 2^nd fav shows this for me.The selection has only had 2 runs over fence both at ffos lass which as we know is a similar course to newbury in many ways and on both occasions has improved on his previous form shown.On my ratings I have this 2^nd rated to swing bill yet the price difference is massive.Im fairly sweet on this horses and hoping of a big run.

Tuesday racing finally returns

Nice to have some decent action i'n Ireland today would be easy to get carried away today but just going with the one selection.

200 leop shinrock paddy 3/4pt ew 15/2

Really like this horse and have followed his profession with interest over the last couple of season poor run only at Cheltenham last season when hit a hurdle early and prob found the ground bit lively been waiting for 3miles on a soft surface and despite having a bit to find with principals on form he is still progressive I think and we are getting a decent enough price.

Nothing more really to add for the day think the lexus looks very hard to call.

Wednesday - What a day !!!!

Wow really are spoilt for choice today with excellent racing at all 3 NH cards.Breif comments on most the races today and even the ones I have not mentioned still have plenty to offer. Plenty of selections for me today but Im much happier risking plenty on days like today then getting involved day in day out on some of the poor racing. I know this does not suit everybody’s style but it fits well with me if I was to select one it would probably be the horse in the 300 bangor.

Fairyhouse

1220 Id be against zaidpour here purely due to the price, plenty of others with potential here pineau de re and mount helicon both should be shorter than there current odds but at the same there looks to be better opportunity to finding a winner today.

1250 solwhit is rock solid here for me and anything odds against looks a fair price if im honest.In the dark a little with hurricane fly over trip and fitness but no doubt he is the more classier of the 2 for me long-term.

120 asigh pearl 1/2pt e/w 14/1 gen bog

blew out lto on 2^nd run from a break which whatever reason people may decide upon can often be the case but on her reappearance run this season she looks handicapped to win a race.These conditions look no issues and overpriced for me.

155 Obviously a very Interesting race but so hard to call for me could spend plenty time talking about all of these and still be no clearer.Jvyole with a run would be a clear selection but fitness first time up is a concern.

230 Id  Expect a 90% ready mikeal dhaguenot to still be good enough to win this.

300 Golden silver would be my idea of the best bet of the short ones today rock solid in these conditions and clearly has the best form on offer.

330 Competitive handicap to end the card Romanesco looks well in on my figures but it’s a hard race to call and jumping has not been consistent so far short as 9/1 in places now due to non runners so will let this one run now.

bangor

1215 gilbarry 9/2 vc bog 2pt win

If trained by a more fashionable trainer I expect this would be fav here. made a nice impression lto despite making a couple of typical novice mistakes.Dan breen could improve again but needs to show his best hurdle form really now to trouble my selection and with no issues with conditions I expect a big run at  a fair price.

1245 walk tall was a planned selection but is now 5/1 and I can’t possibly be backing a horse of his profile at that price. one hurdle run showed he had ability to win of this mark needed chase run lto but showed up well and today looks the day.

150 high benefit is worth taking on here I feel.Backspin looks the obvious one, our mick and loch ba are both well regarded and should run nice races in an ok race

225 galaxy rock 5/1 gen bog 1pt e/w

Clearly not the most well handicapped of horses but looks to have been found an opportunity here were to many are not likely to improve tends to run to his mark most runs and conditions to suit and think there is a little bit of value to be had at his price when you compare it to the horse in the previous race I know very much which one I would like to be with.

300  nouaillias 10/1 vc coral bog 1pt e/w

Miss miracle far short all about connections and profile, present your case respected but and will like the trip but similar comments apply to nouallias who more than double the price. Clear on my ratings with pyc and even a repeat of his run lto will see him go very close.

newbury

1225 space mission ½ pt 40/1 gen  Ikorado road ¾ pt e/w 14/1 365

Firstly taking a chance with space mission but he has gone well fresh before and is well handicapped on his old form.Plenty of sexy types in here but im willing to take them on at there odds which makes this race then an attractive betting race.Key cutter could run well if his jumping holds up again and is clear rated on chase form shown so far.The selection for me though is ikorado road who I expect is going to be well suited by this trip likes the course and has a little more scope for improvement than the other horse.Similar prices but hopefully I have gone the right one.

130 morestead 18/1 coral 1/2pt e/w

Lower grade stuff here and there are plenty in with similar chances,Cant understand why morestead is not near the head of the market as his last 2 outings have been of a similar to level to those that head the market and this 18f trip suits him well.

205 martys mission 8/1 3/4pt e/w

Have to be careful im not following one over the cliff here but did not have things go his way lto and if I felt he could win off higher marks then I have to follow again today.Price is shorter today but at the same time this looks a weaker race.

310 deep purple 4/1 fred bog 2pt win

Twist magic has to be taken on over this trip at the current odds and I simply don’t think deep purple gets the credit he deserves.lto showed he was in decent form and ran a better race for me than the previous years event when then coming on to win this race.Looks rock solid and stand out price.

Monday

3 3rds was the best I could manage on Saturday in what was an excellent days racing at cheltenham.Friendish flame ran a respectable race but is probably held of his mark now the winner improved again.Master minded put in another high class performance and it was a fine performance not what spooked somersby before the start and he did not look totally happy either for a few strides when the tape went up,lets hope its nothing as he ran a respectable race over a trip to short now.Im not sure why connections of calgary bay have not gone looking for a 21f race for him at chelntenham earlier as it clearly suits the horse and if left on a simlar mark he can stay competitive  I think in these races, poquelon proved what a high class admirable horse he is.Zaynars run flattened out despite being given every chance to win his race and was disappointing for me in a race where I dont feel the form will hold up at the top level.There is a good chance menorah will go straight to the champion hurdle now and in my eyes I cant see a more solid selection at this stage.Cue card ran a good race before lack of experience looked to get the better of him and from this run I would like to see him take his chance in the champion hurdle.Highland valley found the pace to fast on ground to quick for him but will come on again for this experience.

Plumpton

Looked at the 4 handicaps and have a view on them all going with 2 selections as I feel the other 2 have to many doubts at the same time.

205 Himrayn ran respectably on last 2 occasions and either of those runs see him going close here however the lay off and weakness in market is a concern.

235 deep pockets 1/2 pt e/w 9/1 gen bog

2 from 2 at plumpton over this course.poor run last time but that's part of this horses profile.supported this morning a little and despite higher mark looks likely to go close if back on song today.

310 tiger line 1/2pt e/w 6/1 gen bog

2 or 3 that can improve here but tiger line showed improved form last time and also has scope to improve over this trip plenty of stamina in family and running style suggest will suit.only had a couple of runs in handicaps and mark looks workable and im keen to take on masini moon at his price.

340 mujamed could go close if running to his best of this mark but he does have issues with his fences and the trip is not necessarily his best either.fleur de vassy looks to be well fancied.

Saturday

No joy yesterday.struggling to give today's card the write up it deserves which is a shame and something I need to find the answer to I think.
Spent plenty time looking at the Cheltenham card last night and I really could make claims for plenty today but I don't want to make the same mistakes as the last card here as things are just so competitive so hopefully I've made the right call with the selections.


1140 fiendish flame 10/1 1/2 pt ew 
Front runner who looks progressive this year stable an horse in good form and looks weighted to run a decent race still.

120 zaynar 9/2 1 1/2pt ew max bet
Yes he has his quirks but he likes Cheltenham and trip looks ideal gets a hard time I think some times but I think that's helping i'n getting a cracking price about him today confident of a big run

155 somersby 7/1 1/2pt ew
want to take master minded on due to ground and twist magic course.big fan of this horse and hopefully can start living upto his potential.

230  matuhi 16/1 1/2 pt ew Calgary bay 20/1 1/2pt ew 
Cb is just overpriced i'n these conditions for a horse of his class whilst matuhi looks to be improving and has conditions to suit.

305 menorah 5/2 pace is my concern here for him actually hope he runs respectably without winning to help the champion hurdle price

340 highland valley  5/1 ground my concern horse of massive potential though and will turn out best of these I'm sure.

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Friday racing returns

Nice to have racing back struggling for time meeting all day.

115 patman du charmil 1/2pt ew 10/1 williams pair respected 

150  total submission 16/1 1/2pt ew

225  faasell 3/4pt ew 11/1 Neptune colognes midnight chase respected



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Monday

Got caught up Saturday so could not really do the days card justice with a decent preview the solid selections all ran good races and I can't really read things better than that with thoose I don't think.the 2 longshots made very little impact. Interesting little card at Folkestone today going for the one selection who is being supported.

Kind of easy woul be my choice i'n the 125 but plenty of improvers here and the Alan king horse is well regarded.expect handtheprizeover and pacco to both win if
running to a similar mark to lto but both are fav am the latter horse really has quirks.

235 mr tingle 1pt ew 11/2 lad bog
5/1 gen but I would not want to be going much shorter than that.been brought along steadily needed run lto but that run still has him there on my ratings this trip is going to bring out more improvement ground no issues expect can win a Race like this off current mark.

Saturdays selections

Put these on last night as plenty of bookmakers priced up early.great days racing at Newbury.will try and write up reasoning later.

1225 starluck 1/2pt win 5/1 Fred bog
1255 martys mission 1/2pt ew 20/1 365 bog
1400 olofi 3/4 pt ew 13/2 vc Fred pp bog
1505 burton port 1pt ew 8/1 365 Fred bog
1540 pocket aces 1/2pt ew 20/1 Fred bog

Freezing friday

Close to a very good day yesterday with vagrant emperor going down by a short margin after the pair pulled clear.extra bold at least managed to win resulting in a profit for the day.Aiteenthirtythree was given a strong mention and the 13/2 looked overpriced.terrible news about tell Massini i'n that Race.

No selections today I like 3 horses and I did manage to get 5/2 with 365 about coup royale last night but was only available there and it's now a 15/8 chance.barafundle and mathuni are the others I like but both are to short for me i'n races this competitive. I'd put nobody of combining all 3 i'n whatever way you like but generally a watching day for me.

Thursday Update

Decent days racing with the start of the newbury winter festival,obviously like most im hoping that the weather does not get in the way of some excellent action.Yesterdays selection ran respectably but got done for pace in the end a slightly stiffer test is obviously needed and I would not give up on him just yet.

3 Selections for me today and im feeling confident these will go well today.1 other horse to mention today is aighteenthirtythree who looked a different horse lto at Cheltenham and im very excited about seeing this one go over fences this season.He has a fair bit to find with the fav obviously and I cant really put this one up a selection in such a tight race at 4/1 but a big step up in form would not surprise me and I expect him to jump very well.

245 newb vagrant emperor 3/4pt e/w 8/1 taken

VE comes back from a long lay off but the stables record first time is excellent so I have no issues with the lay off.Looks well treated on his novice hurdle form and should have no issues with trip and ground,stable think this is well handicapped and you have to agree.Obviosuly rajamand was a selection lto but I would be happy taking on up in trip and he does still have to find something on form with the likes of full of joy and foynes island who would rate bigger dangers for me.Ive been frustrated that I have not had a few of the stables winners recently as it is one that I follow very closely but lets hope there good run continues here.

220 taun screaming brave 3/4pt e/w  6/1 gen bog

Is being well supported and would not want below 5/1 myself.The Nicholls horse could show improved form now sent handicapping but I have this rated exactly the same as SB who is double the price and  looks to have just as much potential.The slightly further trip should suit and the first time tongue starp is a positive as well to say connections mean business first time up this season.Showed enough last season to be right there at the finish.

330 taun extra bold 1 1/2pt win 7/2 gen bog

Another Emma Lavelle horse here, this one is a little more exposed than the other selection but on his chase form with richard Lee he looks well treated here take of the claim and we have a horse who looks very well in today.This is a little bit of a easier test than when he has shown his best form but it would not surprise me to see a change of tactics here and for him to race much more prominent than usual.Stable does well at course and I would have this a little shorter in my book.

Thursday

245 newbury 3/4pt e/w vagrant emperor 8/1 wh lad bf bog

This one is being well supported I would not want below 7/1 myself

update to follow

Wednesday

Small loss on the day yesterday with a couple of placed horses running ok.Recession proof won his race i'n decent style apart from 2 out which he missed slightly I thought he hurdled quickly and a faster pace is going to help further and expect him to keep improving the 2nd showed improved form again but looks to need further now.maximim looked interested at one point but dropped away tamely my view to take on the fav was the right one though. Papa Caruso jumped poorly and did not run upto form.benbeoch hit the ditch badly on 2 occasions and lost his Rythmn which is most important i'n these staying events.

Struggled to get excited about much today.just got the one selection which I am fairly keen on.

150 weth diamond frontier 2pt win 5/2 gen bog

 I have df clear on my ratings yet he has the potential to improve a fair bit as well this season an I would be shocked if he is not rated much higher by end of the season.he ran poorly on his first race this season but you can easily forgive him that with fitness race tactics and trip all possible reasons. the rest here are generally exposed and if df comes back to form they all have to run to a mark they have never achieved before  the main danger to me pamak dairy but his better form has come over further.

November balance -25.85pts

Tuesday - Frustrating times go on

Think it was 3 winners from the shortlist yesterday which is frustrating when the selctions dont run as expected.oscar gogo ran a fair race but looks in need of further he may find a small race at some point.

Low grade racing today which is generally the case on Tuesdays I find.I have however found todays cards interesting all the same and plenty of interest.

100 sedg doubts about both dorabelle and sophonie seeing this trip out .boragh princess would be the one for me but price slightly to short I think.

130 sedg papa Caruso 1/2pt ew 14/1 pp bog

chamirey could out class these here if returning to his best and taking to fences,he is obviously ideally suited to further and looks worth taking on.kellystown lad will appreciate the step up in trip but I also think similar comments apply to papa Caruso who looks a more than fair price compared to kl.Only has around 7lengths to find with kl and I expect him to get much closer to that horse today.

230 sedg northern quest 1/2pt e/w 14/1 bf vc boyle bog

schinken otto is obviously respected here as he loves it round sedgfield at the same time he needs to improve again though from his new mark.war party showed improved form last time out and looks one to take on near the front of the market and Id take the pair on as they could also take each other on at the front and set this up for one. northern quest needed run lto but looks well handicapped on some of his previous form.This is his trip and the fast pace here I think will suit as he can be keen in his races.slight doubts about the ground but they generally get through it ok at sedgfield and price is more than fair.

300 sedg benbeoch 1pt win 4/1 bf boyle vc bog

very little between the front 3 in the market here so it’s a easy decision to be with the consistent benbeoch here who handles these conditions well and looks sure to go close.matmata de tendon is respected but is  far to short whilst billsgrey still has to improve again and may need this run.

1250 ling 1/2pt win maximix 10/1 pp lb bf bog

nautical approach takes up a large chunk of the market here but really has to be taken on at his price on ground he has never really acted on.Im going to have a small play on maimix he is a bit of a character who has his own idea about things and could easily be beaten very quickly however heavy ground is key to him and on a going day he clearly looks well treated.

150ling  pascha bere is priced up at 11/8 this morning and drifting currently which to me is a fair price to me when you start comparing it to the likes of the fav in the 1250. He was easily the best of these over hurdles and has no issues with these conditions has reportedly schooled well and I expect him to win here if he continues to drift I expect I will get involved.Lord singer looks flattered by his run last time out behind pepe simo as that showed a significant improvement on what he had shown before and although he will be suited by going left handed I expect the fav to hold him.mohayer was there for the experience last time and will improve no doubt but again has plenty to find with pb on hurdles form.

220ling Interesting race preference for me is with recession proof who I do think will handle this ground and will also be suited by the stiffer test he will get today.we are unsure as to how good brackloon high is though as he won last time despite not much being right for him which generally is the signs of a decent animal. He will be much more at home on this ground and is likely to show improved form again.

250 ling 1pt win digger gets lucky 6/1 pp vc bog

I want to take Aztec treasure on here as he is fav due to connections and not his overall form.supreme plan was my initial thought as he could improve from his run lto now stepped up in trip however the price of around 3/1 is  far to short.bobby gee is just about top rated on my figures but he comes with doubts over his jumping and may have been a touch flattered last time out.digger gets lucky showed improved form himself last time on ground which was the softest he had encountered for some time and that run has him going close here.Everything about this horse suggest he is going to appreciate this trip and it what is  a tight race he now looks the value at current prices.

320 ling 3/4pt ew slew charm 11/2  365 wh pp bog

I cant see many of these appreciating the ground and the one that stands out for me clearly here is slew charm.Im sure 2mile on a soft surface is what he needs to show his best form.he is clearly well weighted on his some of his form and whilst he may not be that good now he has showed enough promise on his last 2 runs to suggest he can still win a race when getting his conditions. Sun quest was a selection last time out but the ground is a concern for me.

Monday Williams double ?????

Poor run continues with no success yesterday long losing spells are part of the game for me at the prices I play at.the key thing for me is if I'm generally reading the races I look at right and after a few days off last week Which was needed I'm much happier with how I'm looking at things now hopefully the winners will follow suit soon.

Interesting days racing with plenty to look at going with 2 selections from a decent size shortlist so hopefully found the right ones.


130 kemp banjaxed girl is the one I like here slight unknown about the trip but she's tough and holds her form well I wanted 5/2 though so have to leave at the moment.

235 kemp I like moghayer and  lupanar here from my ratings point of view but the first named has to prove his well being whilst lupanar is clearly not the horse of old and has his own idea about things.plenty others with claims on a competitive little race.

310 kemp shakalakaboomboom would have been of some interest at around the 3/1 mark but any chain of that has clearly gone and he does jar doubts at the same time rodrigo Gonzales could bounce back to form round a course he likes with first time blinkers.

120 ffos teaforthree is a nice type will appreciate this stiffer test only has one real opponent should win but priced accordingly

155 ffos Oscar gogo 1pt win 6/1 gen bog 

Ealry signs are this one is fancied today and if so looks well handicapped quiet run last time likely to know a lot more now.

300 ffos stormyisland ahead 1/2pt ew 8/1 gen bog

Has not been the most fluent of jumpers as of yet but still has ran well respectably i'n novice events under a penalty no issues with conditions decent claimer taking more weight off looks fair price against a very short fav.

110lud azulada bay one more dinar are the 2 for me here with slight preference for the former.priced up as joint favs so no real angle. 

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Another Busy Sunday

Interesting days racing and a fairly big outlay for me on the day so hopefully I have found a couple to run big races.

1235 aintre presenandcorrect 1/2pt e/w 14/1 gen

Firstly I would probably go win only if we get a non runner.Most of these look exposed and generally these races are the ones I do be at reading the selection ran  a solid race last time out and the drop back in trip I expect will suit here its rated similar to the market leaders,stable knows the type to act on these fences.Would be a confident selection if not for the luck needed in these races but the prices looks excellent value.

110 aintree Looks tough to call plenty of these could bounce back to form and look well handicapped if they don't though expect son of flicka to be right there and he is sure to run his race.

145 aintree merigo 1/2pt e/w 9/1 bfred 8/1 gen pak jack 1/4pt e/w 33/1 vc sj

Merigo is  a horse I have followed for some time and still looks fairly treated he may want a slightly stiffer test than this which is the only concern for me.pak jack goes well round here and with doubts about plenty here he could run a better race than his odds suggest.whatuthink looks the main danger but has been well supported and does have jumping concerns

255 aintree dont rush it 3/4pt e/w 8/1

Stable doing well at the moment and one I have a fair bit of success with.Goes well fresh and is rated with the market leaders on my figures and 7lb claimer sure to help.no issues with conditions and on best form goes very close today.whereyougoigo is obviously the potential improver here but is priced up accordingly and does need to find a fair bit.

245 navan siegemaster 1pt win 12/1 lad sj hold the pin 1pt win 11/1 lad sb

Don't think this looks as competitive as many are thinking Ive decided to split my stakes though as I have very little between both of these.Siegemaster ran and ok race first time out this season and should improve for that outing plenty weight but is still rated right there.hold the pin ran well in this last season and from a similar mark should be thereabouts again.

Saturday

No joy with my selections yesterday neither running to there mark.the Irish horse was very weak i'n the Market whilst the other more than likely needed the outing to put him straight.

Struggled to find much from a betting point of view despite the good quality of racing today and it's looks a very tricky day.

310 ascot tatenen 1/2pt ew 10/1 lad wh bog

Few potential improvers here but they need to find a fair bit and are priced up far to short the selection has switched stables and showed plenty promise last time.like the booking of timmy murphy who style should suit this horse as he can hit the odd fence.the drop back i'n trip should suit and at the prices he looks fair value.

Friday

Ascot looks decent racing but very tricky from a betting point of view at the same time.
Spent most my time concentrating on the 2 handicaps at Musselburgh hopefully got found a couple that can run big races at decent odds.

1255 muss Barron watlass 14/1 gen bog 1/2 pt ew

Showed plenty promise last season i'n novice events.have this top rated myself no issue with conditions slight concern about the lay off but price is worth the risk.


200 muss five jembs 1/2pt ew 16/1 bog
Put up last night it's weak this morning and now 20/1 i'n places.came over from Ireland for the better ground and sharp test I think not got much to find on form and looks better than current mark.

Early selection friday

Taken a price on a horse tonight as I think it may move earlier in the morning vc and hills both have this at 16/1 so had no problem getting on.

200 muss five jembs 1/2pt ew 16/1 bog

Likely to be one more selection early i'n morning

Thursday

No selections again today not looked at today's cards.Friday and the weekend looks more promising so should be getting involved again from then.

Rainy Wednesday

No bet again for me today plenty of rain about and it's sure to be testing.had a brief look at the cards but nothing to note really.

Tuesday

The weekends racing at cheltenham was obviously excellent but from a personal betting point of view it was however extremely disappointing and I showed a large loss over the 3 days.The original purpose of the blog was to highlight to my self the areas off racing that my approach does not work.Now to me it was clearly shown this weekend that due to the nature of cheltenham I need to profile potential improver's into my handicap ratings more favourably along with ranking previous course form at a higher importance level than I do.I also have the issue that If I look at a handicap for long enough then im certain I will find the winner such is the confidence that I have in undoing these races and finding an angle for a selection in them.Clearly on some occasions I need more discipline.Plenty of lesson learnt though and although it was frustrating to be rewarded with little from the time and effort that went into analysis the races im sure that im now in a better position for the future.

Few quick thoughts on some of the weekends performances.Cue card will win any novice event at the festival for me was not really a fan until this performance.Much better horse for the fast pace and hurdling improved a lot on last time.It clearly looked like this was mr thrillers festival and he ran a good race until falling which left the path clear for time to rupert to take the novice chase the winner did well wo win at this trip but ill be reserving any judgement on him until we see him move up in trip as currently I would not be rushing in to back him at current price for festival.Sam winner won the opening race on saturday and is now fav for triumph not convinced with the race myself.Long run and mad max both ran respectable races and will be interesting to see them both on flat tracks next time. Rajamand was running a good race in the last when coming down and surely is better than his current mark but im sure plenty others are aware of that now as well.Im sure there are going to be better 2 mile races than the race in which Gauvain won and in fact I would be taking little from the race at the moment yes the winner could improve again and the 2nd needs further now.Menorah was the highlight for me on the final day and im convinced he will be hard to beat now for the champion hurdle this season as he is so well suited to how races at cheltenham are ran.

No bet today few thoughts for the action though.

2.10 folk

I like Princess rainbow here should appreciate these conditions more than when winning at hereford last time out and a reproduction of that form has her clear of ocean transit anyway on what they have both shown so far over hurdles.3/1 was the price I had in mind but is a little shorter than those odds at the moment so will pass.

2.40 folk

Looks ultra tough this zarrafakt and plen pouvoir both have more races in them both this season and would be my idea of the likely winners.raymond was improving with every run last season and can also go fresh whilst I would not rule out a return to form from gaora lane as he likes these conditions.Far to difficult and no real betting angle but could see the form holding up.

3.30 fak

Red skipper looks like he has been lined up for a small handicap somewhere and expect he will show improved form today.On what he has shown so far  is held by luthien who I have top rated and he could also improve on last time out.Both horses are under 5/1 this morning though so I do not feel either are worth the risk.

November Balance -13.67pts

Monday

No selections for me today

Sunday

Great but poor selections yesterday.let's hope for better today.

110 1pt win kilmurry 4/1
220 1pt win general miller 7/1
1/2pt ew tarkari 25/1
1/2pt ew culcabrook 50/1
255 1/2pt ew hidden keel 25/1
1/2pt ew soothes trophy 50/1
1/2pt ew rock county 20/1

May update late for 330 depending on Any non runners

Saturday

Sorry running late today

1250 zakeeta 1/2pt ew 20/1
120 berries dream 1pt win 4/1
155 ogee 1/2pt ew 9/1 razor royal 1/2pt ew 12/1
235 great endeavour 2pt win 5/1 mad max 1pt win
310 supercede 1pt ew 15/2
340 rajamand 1/2ew 12/1 khayar 1/2pt ew 14/1

Friday

Great days racing at Cheltenham today. I'm lucky enough to be spending the 3 days there so it's just going to be selections on the blog really.I will be trying to post brief thoughts on twitter.

115 1/2pt ew Martys mission 25/1 365 lad bog

150 1/2pt win king of the night 7/1 gen

225.  1/2pt ew Quito de tresor 9/1 gen 
         1pt win keelaghan 5/1 lad pp bog

335 1/2pt ew turner brown 20/1 vc 365 c bog
        1/2pt ew pro pell 12/1 gen

405 mr thriller 1pt win 4/1 gen



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Thursdays Thoughts

Yesterday proved to be an eventful days racing,was nice to be on the returning end of some good luck when monsieur caught the eased up likely winner.Sure that will go down as my luckiest winner of the season at the end of the day they all count.Summery justice bounced back to form and also got myself and the stable of the cold list earlier in the day.Credit I think goes to aidan coleman here who was working at his mount form some way home but kept the horse in some kind of rhythm he missed the odd fence out and if he can work on his jumping a little I expect he can find another race.Overall 2 nice winners to bring the blog into profit for November.


Racing seems a bit more low key today but I'm sure that's because we have been spoilt a little this week and I'm very focused on getting the cheltenham fields sorted out for this weekend.

Ludlow

200 Market has now corrected itself in this race as no way should key cutter have ever been put in as fav on what he has shown so far.Think this is between holmwood legend and midnight haze both have doubts at the same time and there seems little value in the race as both are the front 2 in the market.

230 Would not surprise me to see gortenbuie run a respectable race here 2nd in a bumper last season extremely backward type but has reportedly done well over the summer period,the trainer is so hard to read with these types but with cavite bela having some question marks I would put not put anybody off a small play however I would want bigger than the 8/1 for a full selection.

400 Drumlang 1/2pt e/w 14/1 vc pp bog

I don't tend to put many up in bumpers, as you had probably realised by now I tend to focus on handicappers that we generally know plenty about however the key thing in every race I look at though is value and here I believe I am getting a price on a horse that should be half the odds this morning.Firstly there are plenty others with claims and we don't know how much some of these could improve for runs etc but drumlang showed up well on his one run last season when very backward,that form is equal to the market leaders here.He is flat bred which is a little different to most from this stable and has reportedly strengthened up and shown a lot more over the summer.It comes with risk but I think the price compensates.

Taunton

310 sun quest 1/2 pt e/w 9/1 365 wh bog

Pennelis looks most likely winner showed improved form last time and any improvement on that run should see him well in here.Sun quest is exposed but I have him rated the same as pennelis at these weights.He is likely to have plenty use made of him over this trip but his racing style is suited to this course and I think he may just stretch these from the front.

340 Thievery can win a race of his current mark but he only just stays the 2mile trip and can run the odd poor race when things do not go his way.Randjo showed up well last time out and does not need to improve on that run really to take this.Prices are about right for both selections and best left I think.

November balance +7.30

Wednesday

I think the tv nearly went out the window  when schinken otto was
travelling smoothly coming round the final bend at sedgfield
yesterday frustarting to be on the wrong end of a marginal call
like that especially when your own selection runs no race.Five star
wilsham ran a good race and I dont think I could have read that
race any better without finding the winner maybe racing on the
worst ground was the difference.Just one thing was a little fresh
inn his race but stayed on ok and looks to have a race in him.After
the early support ebony riover drifted again and looking at the
race im sure connections are taking the time with this
individual.Authentic act dissapointed despite being well suported.
Overall still no winners but I did feel much happier with how I
read things yesterday.

Another interesting days racing today expect to find a few clues
today from the novice and bumper races today.

Bangor

110 good novice chase like the claims of wymott who should have a
good season and this may not be a stiffer enough test for alfie
sherrin.

140 My old friend calgary bay runs here and this is easily the
weakest race he has competed in for some time I expect and hope he
wins but he is short for a horse with a few doubts about him at the
moment.

210 summery justice 1/2pt e/w 16/1 365 bog 14/1 others

Trainer form is a concern here and trainer has said her horses are
a little behind this season but we are getting a decent price about
a well handicapped horse here im convinced he will not be racing of
this mark for long.Should have no issues with conditions and has
gone well fresh before.

340 monsieur 1/2 pt e/w 9/1 bf bog 8/1 gen

This is similar to the schinken otto race yesterday so lets hope I
get this one correct.Im against the front 3 in the betting here for
various reasons.Looking last night I was interested in the
selection and royal chatelier but he has been supported in to 6/1
now which is just a little tight compared the price we are getting
about monsieur.Not won for 4 seasons but a reproduction of his last
run has him clear on my ratings,handles these conditons well and
looks the value in a poor race.

Hunt

220 Looks like todays the day for sommerstum which makes this race
a no bet event now I do like this horses profile as he does have
them form in the book on his run last season at this course,paul
moloney back on board.Porters war could be the danger stepped back
in trip well handicapped on old form ran promising last time out.

November balance - 7.70pts

Tuesday

Bit disappointed with yesterday as for the first time since
starting the blog I feel I actually read a large majority of the
races incorrectly.Spent plenty time on today's action and hopefully
can pull things back today.

Exeter

120 cant really give out a selection here as so many unexposed but
does look an interesting race,Highland valley is well thought off
by connections and won a bumper last season in good style whilst
shrew investment is also expected to improving considerably on his
form from last season.Daring origyn obviously showed up well last
time out and sets the standard in a race where a few may come from.

150 five star wilsham 1pt win 3/1 gen

There is one doubt for me with fsw and that is if this race comes
to soon after last weeks effort if it does not I think he wins as
he should reverse form with victors serenade and I expect he can
hold scotsbrook cloud despite him showing improved form recently.
220 Much will depend on how soft the ground really is here im
convinced watamu bay will show much improved form when he gets real
heavy ground but voaramar two had some high class hurdle form last
season and I would probably have this priced as fav here.I cant get
involved though and again looks a race to watch for the future.

250 Will be suprised if royal charm does not win this pretty
impressively stable think he is exciting for this season was looked
after last year for this campaign.

350 Mares novice hurdles are not really my thing but I dont think
this will take much winning if Im honest and it would not surprise
me to see a much improved run from calico rose who was staying on
5th in a bumper last season.At 20/1 it may be worth a small
investment but not one really I can put up with any confidence.

Lingfield

310 Got this between captain tidds and vinmix de bessy but little
value in there prices and both have doubts still in fitness first
time up.

340 just one thing 1/2pt e/w 10/1 gen with bog 12/1 is available

Doubts and claims can be made for plenty of these here sagredo
finds little at the end of his races and is to short but does have
the best form on offer.mister matt I think is going back chasing
and may need this outing but has been supported this morning.Kinsya
if settles better could see this out and on one hurdle run looks
well in.Carrig an uisce is likely to run his race but may find 1 or
2 better handicapped.Just beware really runs 2 races the same
whilst denton royal is interesting but I dont think I can be
backing a 3yold against experienced handicappers that has not
convinced with the trip yet. Just one thing comes with his own
doubts obviously fitness being one of them but he improved with
experience last season and with his jockey taking 7lbs of him today
I dont think he look to badly treated nice price for a horse with
some potential this season.

sedgfield

100 ebony river 3/4pt e/w 8/1 fred wh bog

this is moving as I expected it would forget last run to keen not
wound up.Stable like this one a lot and looked a massive price
this morning still respectably now and will be disappointed if he
does not go close.

300 No doubt cranky corner has ability and looked overpriced at
forecast however half that price this morning and I really respect
the chances of bale oshea here who comes over from irleand in good
form and has ideal conditions, fav and a short price for a handicap
but that price may look ok after this as I think there are major
doubts about plenty here.

330 well oiled 1/2pt e/w 7/1 gen

Im against best horse in a big way here as I dont think he is good
enough and is poor value.Troodos jet is respected but is no value
which leaves me with schinken otto and well oiled who both have
similar claims to tj.schinken otto may need genuine decent ground
to be at his best so preference is for the latter horse not much
between them though.

400 authentic act 1/2 pt e/w 7/1 gen

Dont give many a chance here and have this as a clear fav .Few
are shorter due to there unexposed or big trainers profile yet this
one has form in the book to go close today goes well round here and
no issues with ground as it stands.

Busy monday

No joy yesterday.interesting days racing i'n what should be a excellent week.price are moving this morning on all my fancies and shame a couple more have not held up.still got to keep things brief sorry.

Southwell

1240 aboukir bay 1/2pt win 12/1gen

Has started to be supported.does not not look badly weighted on best form last season needed run recently over hurdles.

110 one more dinar 1/2pt ew 5/1 gen

Badly needed run last time but on run before that looks well handicapped Harry challenger back on board big run expected.

245 thought I had found a decent priced horse with a chance here untill I clicked on oddschecker this morning and found hot tottie priced at 5/1 obviously can't be touched at that price but expect her to go very close looks extremely well i'n on Exeter run last season.

Carlisle

120 does not look the best of novice chases I like papa Caruso here who showed up nicely on first run this season looks more a chasing type but has no form on heavy so has to be left

225 hockenheim 1/2pt ew 7/1 Fred lad bog

I would not want below 6/1 here if I'm honest 10/1rp was massive for a horse thy loves these conditions has a good course record and goes extremelly well fresh.diamond frontier sotovik far to short i'n these conditions.

300 1/2pt win hunters ploy 11/1 wh 365 bog

This is a little bit outside the box but all these horse come with big doubts.we have no idea on fitness for any of these.hey big spender may need shorter at this trip nice horse though.Massasoit is quirky.prince de beauchene looks to short on level of form shown.big fella thanks may need race more than rest which leaves me with hunters ploy who basically has plenty to find on form but no way should be this price most unexposed runner i'n race and stable gen has runners well forward and I worth a small bet.

330 like master Sebastian here but price as gone really it want looks a competitive little race

Sundays selections

Nice winner yesterday pulls a bit back for the month.
Few comments on yesterday.
Ashkazar ran a good race off a very fast pace as expected I think he can still win off his current mark.
Was nice to see kauto star win and I'm sure he will improve on that to me sizing europe needs to settle a little better still which I think is a possibility my bigger concern is i get the feeling he is a better horse going left handed.meanus dandy did the job but I don't really think he is one to follow far to many horses never jumped or travelled to me and I can see a few of the more staying types bouncing back to form next time.
General ting was to fresh really and did well to finish so close whilst alasi ran nothing close to her mark and obviously needed the outing.

Ffos las

320 money order 1/2pt ew 365 bog sj looks weak this morning and anything above 5/1 is fair to me.
Have this one clear on my ratings before jockeys claim comes into it.sjoukd have no issues with conditions the return is a little concerning as stable can be tricky to read but has gone well fresh and looks a little overpriced.

Hereford

305 ruthenoise 1pt win 3/1 wh 365 bog sj
Babilu was a Winner for me lto but needs softer ground to show his best form. Conditions look perfect for the selection and his stable do well these types I can see her improving slowly during season an wi not finish on this mark.far to fresh on reappearance but even repeating that run will see her go close yet we should see improvement as well.

340  like inside dealer here who showed much improved display last time 7/2 this morning is just to tight though so will just be watching.


November balance -2.40pts

No further bets saturday

No further bets I've taken the 5/1 with sportingbet for asigh pearl 155 but it's only that price with them and is 3/1 i'n places so would be a little unfair to claim.do expect her to go very close though.

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Saturday

Have no laptop at the moment so I'm sorry but things will e brief of the next few days from a write up side of things i still have all the tolls required to do my form studying so hopefully won't be much of an inconvenience to things.

Will be a further update for down royal
Once the  bookies decide to price up.

Sandown

220 like alesandro Mantegna but non runner has taken it down to 7 runners and taken a fair chunk out the market

255 general ting 1pt each way 11/2 365 pp bog

Put this one up last time at Cheltenham ran a very eye catching race untill fitness/stamina ran out this stiff 2mile should suit even though I think the horse will need further i'n time .he is clearly weighted to win on his form shown so far and with the likely hood of further improvement I expect a big run.

Winc

140 alasi 1/2pt ew 5/1 gen

This to me is a 3 horse race all closely matched all could improve alasi shoul prob finish 2nd to keradi if they all run to form but we know things are never that simple and just looks a bet to nothing here

210

Nightmare race i want to e against Australia day which is my angle think he was flattered last tine and a bit of hype round him at the moment I have  black jack blues clear despite the rise i'n the weights but I'm concerned with them all going to fast and setting this up for something like leslingtaylor.they would be my 2 against the field but I don't want to split stake  due to there prices and I just can't find a angle to bet really at the moment.

320 meanus dandy 1/2pt ew 8/1 lad wh bog

This looks weighted to win a decent race.good record with jockey like the application of headgear an should have no issues with conditions. My danger I imcloudnine who showed improved form last time out an sable is i'n excellent form.

Friday - no bet

Both selections ran good races with one beaten on the line yesterday.no selections for me today had a luck at the racing last night but nothing really stands out so will be taking a break today.

Thursday

Yesterdays selection was well supported yet again but ran no race jumping really let him down from an early stage.

2 selections today tight on time so analysis brief but just concentrating on these 2 races so hopefully will get a result today.

Haydock

205 maktu 1/2pt ew 7/1gen with bog bookmakers bigger us available

Had this as fav i'n my Market.improved  with racing last year I think mark is ok no issue with conditions.

240 dr livingstone 1/2pt ew 11/1 vc coral bog 12/1 Boyle 

Quirky sort but weighted to win on his best form and stable i'n cracking firm at the moment any further rain will suit.

Wednesday

No joy yesterday All the selections were generally well supported and ran ok races so as long as I keep beating the Market like that then things should be ok.ace high looks one for the future but will probably be a short price next time.it will be interesting to see where somersby goes now It looks like it's the tingle creek then I expect a step up i'n trip which is then likely to show us if we have a top class horse.
Today's cards are full of big fields and unexposed types found the one horse to have a go with that just looks over priced this morning

200war vasodilator 1/2pt ew 9/1bog 365 hills

This is closely matched with the fav here and even though he is more unexposed I can't see why these won't finish near each other the step back i'n trip will suit didn't stay last time and ground should be no issue.mm takes an extra 5lbof this time and he just looks overpriced.

Running total November -4.05pts

Tuesday

Plenty of interest today in what looks a good card.

Exeter

135 ace high 1/2pt e/w 12/1 coral bog , sb

Front 3 obviously likely to be fighting out the finish here but all are priced up accordingly and all come with serious doubts.Ace high firstly showed a similar level of form to mr Hudson in his sole bumper run, He is certain to appreciate this extra distance and the stable generally does well with its runners around here and usually bring a nice horse to this meeting.

235 somersby 2pt win  9/4 gen now

This is going to be run at some pace I think which as long as hadden frost does not panic and gets his mount jumping then I can see this being set up perfectly.I really think Somersby will take high rank as a chaser this season and will be very disappointed if he cant win this on these favourable terms despite being his first run of the season,Price is getting a bit tight but I had this priced up shorter still and lets hope he can change my luck with the shorter priced selections.

305

I want to be with phidippides but whilst writing up this morning the 3/1 has gone its now 9/4 gen which is just to tight for race like this.If he does drift later then I will be backing this horse probably to around 1pt on my staking as simply I think this is a very exciting novice chaser for the season and has been looked after for this campaign.Qozak would be the main danger over rock noir. I will try to update if I back this selection later.

335 clyffe hanger 1/2pt e/w 10/1 gen with the bog bookmakers

Vamizi and swing bill should run there races but I cant see much else in this.clyffe hanger may look like a odd selection as he has not won for years but he showed plenty last time until staying on one paced likes the course and despite a rise in the weights still looks on a nice chase mark.At the price I think he looks a nice value price against a few others in the market who have big doubts.

405 dingat 1/2pt e/w  13/2 fred vc coral bog

Stuck between 2 here the selection and johns gift Im going with the class angle from dingats last run and also concerned johns gift is looking a bit difficult to win with.Plenty unexposed in this but these are the ones I like taking on and the selection has the best form to offer in this race and still has some scope to improve over this trip.

Monday

Good days racing in what looks like it could be an ok week 2 selections to start the month.

Kempton
130 molanna view looks a nice type and stable are in good form at the moment emma lavelle places here horses very well and is still an underrated trainer at the moment.Looks certain to appreciate this extra distance and I expect him to run a lot sharper race than last time out.3/1 is a bit tight though with many other potential improver's in the race.

240 always bold 1/2pt e/w 9/1 lad boyle pp bog (is being supported)
This looks a nice race working title is far to short on a 12lb higher Mark and no claim this time out.
Kings forest could run well back at kempton but im not convinced with him overall.Alderlucks record fresh and around kempton is clear for everyone to see and would go down as my main danger to the selection.Always bold has not enjoyed his time over fences but back over hurdles off a light weight here im hoping the horse bounces back to form if he does he is clearly weighted to take this.his best form has been shown on a sharpishright handed track like kempton,no issues with ground and I see the blinkers as a positive.

310 will be fascinating to see how riverside theatre gets on but not a betting race

420 I like mayberry here with the jockey taking extra weight off.Im concerned about here jumping though and at 4/1 she looks to short.

Plumpton

155 dormouse 1/2pt e/w 6/1 365 chand bog 13/1 sj
switched off could be well in here but your getting 7/4 about a horse who you are backing on potential to translate flat form to hurdles and more of these I tend to find don't over the season.A few others who are potential improver's but I like dormouse here who has ran 2 good races recently since cheekpieces have been
added.I have him top rated on form shown and with his jockey taking a few extra lbs off I can see him going close.

Sunday update 2 for JP ??

Having 2 more bets today at cork not concenred about the outlay for the day.You have to look at each bet individually and on any other day these would be selections.

220 streets of gold 1/2pt e/w 10/1 hill lad coral bog
doubts about a few here at the front of the market,like the profile of this one good run over trip to short last and looks to have a decent handicap in him this season.should appreciate the trip.

325 farringdon 2pt win 11/4 pp bog 5/2 gen
like this horse a fair bit and was impressed with him last time out.that piece of form is the best chase form on offer here in my opinion should have no issues with conditions and like the fact muirhead is holding price.

sunday

Poor day yesterday will look back at some point 4 selections today to keep me busy and possible of another update later for the irish card.

300hunt fighting chance 1/2pt e/w 12/1 365 chand james bog
plenty of doubts about a few here,fighting Chance ran up a sequence of wins last season before running no race at cheltenham has gone ok fresh before and looks overpriced.

405hunt three boars 1/2pt e/w 20/1 tote pp bog
amuse me should win if running same race as last week but towecester form is risky to translate
sometimes and at odds on you have to take on.have three boars next best on my ratings he also looks to be slowly improving no issues with conditions should go well

205carl pyrachanta 1/2p e/w 11/1 coral bog 10/1 gen
needs soft ground showed up well on debut run this season looks weighted to win of this mark

240 race to watch every horse has potential to improve and I would not rule any out including the outsider door boy who at the price prices would be my choice

310 minister shadow 1/2pt e/w 28/1 coral bog 25/1 fred james pp
gentle ranger is obviously respected as is the likely national type palace mereno however both are to short.
the selection is generally exposed but is closely weighted with bay cherry 2nd fav and has no issue with conditions obviously fitness may be an issue but price is worth the risk.

Saturday

nice winner yesterday hopefully anyone that backed it got on early as I would not hav been confident
backing a horse like that at 7/2.
Todays looks a good days racing as you expect for saturdays and im pleased to see the charlie hall being a decent race
as I think the last couple of years its lost a little appeal and I have my first max bet of the season.
150 ascot minneapolis 1/2pt e/w 20/1
very competetive race this but Im taking a chance with a horse who does not look
badly weighted on his best form and looks like he is slowly improving carries his head a bit high
but he seems a consistent type and I like the booking of timmy murphy.
225 ascot id be against against radium here I like pause and clause nice individual,
but othermix is clear pick on last years form 5/1 would be the pice id want to get interestd in though

340 ascot like take the breeze now rain has not 5/1 to one though now and thats to short for a race of this nature
if carruthers runs he would still be respected and possol can go well if in the mood.
415 ascot alsadaa 1/2pt e/w 20/1 365 fred bog
likes it round ascot no issues with conditions goes well fresh
price to big front 2 in market obviously the dangers
450 oiseau de nuit 1 1/2pt e/w 9/2 365 fred bog
Loved the way this horse travelled lto untill weakining close home on my ratings I have this well clear today your the top and sizing africa
obviously have the potential here to improve but I much prefer form in the book.
The e/w part of the bet for me is solely about trying to protect stakes at my large level if you prefer you can allways go win only and probably trade off on this one if you prefer.

250 weth fair along would be the selection record this time of year excellent,you just dont know what form he is going to be retuning in thouh and at 4/1 the reward is not enough.

325 weth 3/4pt e/w calgary bay 12/1 lad 365 fred
deep purple needs to run better than last year to win possibly better over shorter
knockara beau improved during last season but this is a test for a second season chaser first time up.ollie magern generally form not as good as last couple of years.nacarat needs kempton,the tother one needs a stiffe test thats rythmn outclassed.Which leaves me with barbers shop to short and my old friend calgary bay.He put up his career best performance in similar conditions to these at doncaster last year,clearly needed his first run this season and giving weight to barbers shop may be an issue but at these prices im happy to take the risk.
 

Friday

No joy yesterday with the first selection running no race after a couple of jumping errors ready or not was a bit keen i'n his reappearance but showed up nicely for a long way until tiring on the home straight I think it will be money borrowed with that one.tell Massini could only do what was asked of him really and it I don't understand sometimes what people expect to see from these high class types when they go chasing. Made i'n time jumping well on his hurdles debut and is a lovely long term prospect.2 bets today do like be my light as well 420 uttox but 4/1 is a poor price for a horse who I would be backing mainly for his potential.

Uttox

310 babilu 1/2pt each way  7/1 365 Fred bog
Can't see many enjoying these conditions babilu is a bit of a character but he's weighted to win and I expect him to go close
 quam  celerine looks the danger

430weth 1/2pt each way western gale 12/1 Fred 11/1 365 bog

Solid form for this grade dropped generally consistent top has dropped A few more pounds since last run and cones out top on my ratings is exposed but at price worth a shot

Running total for October +13.75

Thursday update

One more bet to add write up brief today sorry.

330 font 1/2pt each way ready or not 9/1 hills bog sporting bet

Taking a chance on him being ready first time up after a break but that is my only concern and the odds are acceptable for the risk i'n my eyes.I have this horse clear on my ratings then the capable Nathan Sweeney takes more weight of his back. He should have no issue with conditions.

320 Michigan disop 3/4 pt ew

Was on this one lto where I clearly read this wrong got caught up with the horses form around bangor.he was never really put into the race and with Ian popham back on board and the money down it clearly looks as if tidays the day.

One other horse to note today's is glenns boy i'n the last at Stratford his future will be over staying distances but he did show up ok last time so say he might run better than his odds suggest

Thursday

Another update i'n around an hour but horse I like being backed off the boards and I want 5/1 +

3/4pt each way Michigan disop 320 Stratford 13/2 chandler 6/1 Fred Boyle and a few more

Wednesday

Few handicaps at haydock today to have a look at and found the one selection.
In the 325 barwell bridge could run a better race than last time now stepped up in trip and down in grade.The next I like oscar honey on his old form but he is just to hit and miss to be confident about.Catch Bob 435 surely has a race or 2 in him this season I get the feeling though that it maybe another day.

Looking at the 250 then desperate dex has respectable form but not form that says he should be 3/1 he is the main danger to my selection as I think a large majority of these like genuine quick ground.Master somerville does not want it to soft either but I think it should about be OK for him here,has a good record fresh and I defiantly think he can still win of this mark.He has won his 3 out the last 4 races at this grade and finishing 3rd in the other and I expect him to go very close today.

At punchestown it will be interesting to see how noble prince gets on in the novice chase as he is a horse of some potential still over longer distances.

250 haydock 1/2pt e/w master somerville 7/1 gen is weak so I would take bog

Tuesday

One horse caught my eye today and that was chrysander i'n the 310.the fav has to be taken on i'n this yes he's improving but he has had plenty racing recently and is just to short i'n what looks a pretty competitive race.chrysander clearly has the ability to win of hi current mark judging by his return race over hurdles recently where he showed up well for a good way at the 8/1 which was available this morning i'n a couple of places this was going to be a bet but this has been well supported since and it would be interesting to know if this is connections money or just a service.however it's now generally 6/1 and at that price I have to swerve it as I'm unsure about the jockey and whether this is the horses ideal trip around a sharp track.

No bet

Sundays reflections

Sunday proved a real frustrating day .
Superius got far to worked up and I've probably read this one wrong.fairoak lad never travelled or jumped and did not show his true form a change of tactics worked on the winner which I thought my horse held just to make things worse.racing demon ran a good race but the winner returned to form without warning.charminster showed plenty of promise and looks i'n need of a trip hopefully the head carriage was just signs of inexperience they seemed to go a decent clip for a bumper and it looked like an ok race.iona days ran better than his finishing posistion suggested whilst I'm not sure what to make of the tizzard horse yet and it will be interesting to see what they do with him next I really want him to settle though.tramantano did not run upto his level like a few others i'n that race and the winner will get hit for that and I'd want to oppose next time.cool friend won a non event really and hopefully won't get touched by the handicapper to much whilst lami joined i'n on a good day for jp.my biggest frustration of the day had to be peak raider though as this horse clearly should have won.I'm not the biggest fan of Paul carberry and I don't want to complain about jockeys to much but up untill the straight he gave this a typical patient ride and got the horse jumping well but I'm sure that he thought he had the race i'n the bag and then expected his horse to quicken like a sprinter In the straight.overall a poor day on the selection front but I'm still happy with how things are going at the moment so let's hope we can find a winner or two this week.

Settled racing demon at 10/1 as don't think the 11s was available for to long

Running total +17.25pts

Lazy Sunday - No chance

Was getting worried a little bit yesterday when 2 horses I dropped as bets yesterday both won at decent odds and then the first selection failed to run his race for whatever reason but thankfully we was ok when any given day won comfortably at a nice price to keep things going well for this month.
Plenty of interesting action on Sunday and  I probably could have put a few more points out today.the horses that made the shortlist are discussed race by race.Ive looked at each race again this morning and its important who look at every race on a individual bases.lets hope Ive made the right calls.

The first race at aintree on Sunday lets us get a chance to see the latest well regarded french juvenile from the Alan king stable if all the comments are to go by this one has won already but things are rarely that straightforward. In the second I do like cool friend who comes here off the back of finishing 2nd for
her last 5 runs.I get the feeling though that if wishful thinking jumps round then she is going to have to settle for that position again.I do however think this mare has a handicap in her this season probably over slightly further.
Cue card last years cheltenham bumper winner runs for the first time over hurdles and it will be interesting to see how he goes stepped up in trip as no doubt he has an engine.He does take a keen hold in his races and I would be slightly concerned im sure the tizzards who do so well with there horses have thought long and hard about these things though.Bottman showed a nice attitude when winning his bumper last season and it would not surprise me to see him run well at a price (now runs at wincanton and is a short price to win there).It was a poor race in which iona days fell lto and he will need to improve again he is thought off as a nice long term prospect.In the bumper keep an eye on a good run from charminster who is well regarded and his stable don't tend do overate there horses he is priced up at around 7/1 this morning which is fair but I really cant be putting horses up in these races at the moment.
At galway it would not surprise me to see lami run well despite being none more as a long distance chaser and probably needing this outing he is priced up at 10/1 which again is a more than fair price but its difficult to see him winning at the same time.

410 galway No bet
I want to take final approach on here as its the price he is due to connections and potential.The 2 id be interested in are macidoni and lend a hand son.My preference is for the latter horse who would have run a well handicapped horse closer lto if reciving a better ride.This was an improve effort and I'm not sure if that was due to the very fast ground that day so with that concern I'm willing to leave this one at the current price.

445 gal head the posse
I have this one well clear on ratings compared to his main opponent realth dubh who again is another one priced up on connections and potential.Both horses probably want further but I do think head of the posse showed a real liking to fences lto and has the best hurdles form to go with that.Anything odds against for me is a decent price.

515 gal peak raider
When I was looking at this race yesterday my initial comment of the RP forecast of 11/4 was no chance will that be available come the morning so im shocked off the 3/1.On his reappearance run this season he holds all the opposition here and the horse that day looked in need of the race and more chasing experience I think we are getting a decent price about a horse who has the best form in the race at these weights and has the potential to do a lot more this season.splurge looks  like he is being strongly supported and connections obviously fancy this to go well but this needs to improve in my eyes on that he has shown so far.

430 wex No bet
changing course is a horse that I think has a handicap in him at the moment but in looking at the race again im concerned he is going to be taken on early by bachelor affair which may not suit.There is plenty others in this with potential most notably clarkey and at the prices im willing to leave this one now but it would not surprise me if a few winners came from this race.

320 aintree racing demon
May look a odd choice this as as he is pretty short for a horse that has not won in 3 years but in my book I have this as favourite as to me he is just top on my ratings, should have no issues with conditions and if anything this 3 mile will suit more than a stiff 2 1/2mile race.The horse goes well fresh and it was nice to see the stable have a winner yesterday even if it meant missing a winner myself.Solway sam won a race on this course lto but i think he may be flattered by the ap ride that day.Predictive is going chasing and I'm hoping this is to put him right for that.cross kennonup to his true form over cd on his last run but that was on the back of a hard season and despite that being a concern he would rank the main danger and looks strongly fancied however the value is clearly with the selection.

355 Aintree tramantano
Tramantano has won this the last two years and I will have no doubt he has been trained for this race again,the horse does not hold his form as well these days but that lets him race off a lower mark than last years win today.conditions are not an issue and even on some of his worst runs last year he is still the
form pick.ockey de neulliac has plenty of potential but little in the book to warrant the price he is,awesome george looks held as does stagecoach pearl and I think most trouble may come from folk tune who's stable are in good form and ran his best chase run over this course when 2nd to five dream he comes here fit from the flat and could run better than his odds suggest.

220 wincanton superius
Robain is hard to asses in this race an it would not surprise me to see improved form on a decent surface first time up in this handicap but emma lavelle has brought superius along quietly this season.He won a novice race over cd last season and I think the fitting of first time blinkers is a positive here even if it just makes him hurdle a little more fluently even On my ratings a reproduction of last time is enough to take this and this slightly easier test will suit.

255 wincanton fairoak lad
Plenty here I want to take on for vaious reasons.Not a fan of gullible gordons chracter and connections already said he is best fresh I also think he is held by fairoak lad on last years novice chase run round this course.Templer to me does not like winning  and simply smashing looked more impressive than he was when winning a poor race for the grade at startford last time against him.Cant have the 3 outsiders which leaves the first time visored ballyvesesy who may find a bit more improvement now but does need to at the same time in this grade.Im left with fairoak lad who is 3 from 3 at the course showed plenty promise last time out has perfect conditions and the very talented giles hawkins claiming 5lbs on board.This has been well supported this morning but think it would have been unfair to post early at 5/1 with one bookmaker im not concerned about the 7/2 as I had this priced up at ahorter than this still.

Todays bets are then as follows :-

220 wincanton superius,355 Aintree Tramantano,445 gal head of the posse
3 x 1/2pt win doubles placed the bet with 365 who are 5/2 - 2/1 - 7/4

320 aintree 1/2pt e/w racing  11/1 coral bog 10/1 gen
255 wincanton 2pt win Fairoak lad 7/2 gen now but is still being supported
515 galway 2pt win peak raider 3/1 365 bog

Running total for October +22pts

Saturday

Plenty of interesting runners today but I think its important not to get to carried away especially as there is concerns about whta the ground will ride like
few thoughts about the aintree wouldnt want to be mille cheif untill with so many doubts about him but apart from that i do think the market has it right with
westlin winds and nearby being next best so no real angle.My pick in roan chase would be poquelin as i think he is more likely to un his race than tartak who is clear on ratings
monets garden would be next best and the one I would be against is albertas run who I have plenty time for but any rain will not suit.imsingingtheblues on a flat track could also be in the mix so just far to tough.
 
2 bets then
 
400ain lost glory 7/1 gen 1/2pt each way
 
showed potential last season in novice races and i tjink connection want to take advantage of his novice status still

 
410chep any given day 1/2pt each way 9/1 gen
 
front 2 in the betting here are there due to connections and potential so ahve to take any given day showed up well on  his reapperance this year the drop back in trip round here
will not be an issue and think this one has a decent race in him off this mark

Friday

No bet today

Thursday

Brief today as short on time had a good look at the racing though and 2 selections at Carlisle the one should outclass it's rivals and had this around evens and the other a bit mire risky but showed good form last year for this level and back on decent ground should go ok if straight first time.
325 tara royal 1 1/2pt win 5/2 sj c bog
355 papa caruso 1/2 pt each way 16/1 sj bog and a couple more


 

wednesday at worcester

Fontwell looks a poor card so just concentrated on Worcester with the 1 selection.

420 art man 1/2pt e/w 14/1 365 coral bog

315 Worcester
Will be very disappointed if the newcomer to chasing bob n you and the giant bolster cant make an impression in this both horses looked like they would always make better chasers,I would not want to be on ballydub again here.

420 spot the ball is likely to show improved form now in  a handicap but you just have to oppose these types,I'm not keen on kilvergan boy either as he is up 7lbs today and also has lost the 5lb claimer he had last time,kilmore west likely to handle these conditions better than last time and pocket two good course form are respected but I'm willing to Take a chance with art man staying the trip here but we are getting decent odds for the risk.The selection has not been a natural to hurdles but despite this has shown
a respectable level of form for this grade, he ran an OK race lto despite being hampered badly.

455 competitive handicap I want to take on another trump who I only have in front of the top one on my ratings and looks to be priced up on connections rather than what he has shown I'm slightly concerned about sir ian repeating his run last time out so that takes the front two out of the betting.However from there I have very little between the other 4 and with all priced similar and justthe 7 runners I have to swerve the race.


Jons gift yesterdays selection was placed so no harm done there.I don't think celestial halo did much wrong yesterday and will be interesting to see where connections go next whilst dare me proved very little however his liking for a decent surface will make him interesting for the spring festivals.

Running total +18.87

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Exeter on Tuesday

410 exeter johns gift 1/2pt e/w 8/1 365 sj bog
 
Will be interesting to watch the novice races today with plenty of the big yards represented.The race that interest me from a betting view though is the 410.russian epic obviously has potential in this but is priced up accordingly and just sets the race up nicely,ill be interested to see how millers dawn gets on this season as I know this horse has had treatment on sore legs over the summer and im sure connections think he is much better than he has shown so far and I would not be suprised if he uns well but the stables runners all look to be a bit short on work.johns gift showed more than ehough in novice hurdles last season to say he can be competetive off this mark, he is also won first time out last season and with conditions looking uitable im hoping for a good run.

No bet monday

Nothing catches the eye at plumpton today so no bet.hopefully should be something for exeter on Tuesday which looks a ok card.

Weekend thoughts

Friday was the first real disappointing day since the blog started with just the one placed horse.Calgary bay the main selection on the day clearly needed the race and I'm still off the belief on his day he has a decent race in him again this season.swing bill ran respectably but just wasn't good enough in the end expect he may hit his level soon and probably wont be one to follow now.Scene two however may have small race in him if he can improve his hurdling a little more with racing.

On saturday I was impressed with how aiteen thirtythree won his race.The horse looks like he is crying out for fences and jumps very nicely,he seems to have grown up a bit over the summer and loos one to keep an eye on for the longterm.
2 i would be more interested in for the short term are oiseau de nuit and general ting who either due to lack of a recent run or being stepped up in trip just failed to see out there races both ran very similar races travelling very nicely before fading quickly and of there current marks have races in them.

Today was a bit frustrating with the mention winning and also heez  a cracker finally showing a little of his true potential in a weak novice hurdle for kempton the latter I had noted for a handicap or two this year so hopefully his will not effect his mark to much.General ting ran a solid race but was  just got caught out by a well handicapped tony martin type who was well backed all day.


Running total for October now +18.37 update in morning for plumpton

One i'n ireland

3rd was best we could manage yesterday at least the place made the day a little profitable.
Kempton looks tricky today so as much as it looks interesting to watch I'm swerving the card.
I did like lancetto at naas but odds looked to tight this morning and it's been backed early.so just the on bet today.
355cork bachelor affair 1/2pt ew I've taken 14/1 bog with ladbrokes think 16s is available
This looks held on his last run but the horse hated the ground that day and got taken on early.before then he looked to be progressing well ad at the prices I'm willing to give him chance back on this ground and i'n a small field

Saturdays bets

No joy yesterday will try and put some thoughts up about the wkends action at some point.
Not really a betting card today for me I'll have a go i'n the handicaps though

240 oiseau de nuit 1/2pt ew 20/1 365 bog
425 son of flicka 1/2pt ew 33/1 gen
General ting 1/2pt ew 14/1 gen

Fridays Bets

245 gee dee den 1pt win 13/2 wh pp bog 
Similar rated on hurdles form best chase form good jumper
505 swing bill 1/2pt each way 4 places 8/1 365 bog gen that price
Down i'n grade running consistent handle conditions
540 scene two 8/1 1/2pt e/w 365 and a couple more but be quick on this one 
2 mile decent ground stiff finish may suit this one not exposed as looks stable does well at this meeting few dark ones so don't take to short
 

Early bet for friday

The home of national hunt racing holds it first meeting tomorrow.nothing beats Cheltenham and can't wait to be there again this weekend.as I'll be keeping the blog updated using my phone things will be brief on the anaylsis.

355 chelt Calgary bay 1pt each way 7/1 365 bog
Pretty shocked that a horse of this class ha been priced up so big tonight.Ever since I watched this horse as a novice jump round Cheltenham with ap on board he's had my attention.yes he's got top weight here but when you compare
him to ouzbeck who is also on the same Mark then that says to me his is still fairly treated.the horse travelled well for a long time i'n te gold cup untill his stamina ran out and I could still see him competing at the top level this season with conditions i'n his favour.to my eyes 3mile on decent ground is what this horse wants at the moment.only concern has to be he does to much early and his trainer has left a bit to work on but I'm willing to take the risk at this price.

No bet Thursday

Another winner yesterday keeps the profit going in the right direction.
Profit for the month is +19.55pts now from 18pts staked.
Punchestown sees the return of sizing europe and it will be interesting to see how he gets on over the extended trip and loosen my load is a horse of some potential this year and expect him to rank very highly this season.
Cant get excited about anything at wincanton so nothing for me today.

wednesday

2 nice winners yesterday an its always nice when things work out like that.
Thanks for the comments nice to know a few are taking an interest in the blog
at this early stage and lets hope this is just the start of things to come.

weth
325 ahmedy 1/2pt e/w 6/1 365 bog and gen that price with most firms
repeat the top one here who I was on last time and I know connections expect this to finish
the season on a lot higher mark but ahmedy showed form off a similar nature last season
yet receives plenty of weight here,fit from the flat stable in good form,no problem
with conditions and just looks the better value.
355 drever route 1pt win 4/1 pp bog also available with a few more.
interesting timmy murphy picking up a few rides for wylie and his riding style
suits this horse.has always had plenty of potential and i think 2 1/2 mile on decent ground
round a sharp track will suit.

few other quick thought expect clarkey to go close at punch improving type but to short
similar comments to 455uttox kilkenny all star who looks on a lenient mark in a poor race
also keep an eye on hen knights pair both ex costello horses the first looks out n out staying chaser
whilst I could see the bumper horse running much better than his odds but stable is
out of form still.345 glenns boy 525 high kite

Two for Tuesday

220 iceman george  8/1 1/2pt e/w sj bog and with a few others
ran 2 respectable races over course last season
recent run on flat should put the edge on fitness and expect novice status was kept back for this season. Should go close i'n a poor event.
250 fidelis 7/1 1/2pt e/w 365 bog
Only the one run over fences last year when running creditably,actually think new trip will suit
likes decent ground,can defiantly win a race of this mark have him clear on my own ratings
gone well fresh before and think first time out maybe time to catch him.
 

No Action Monday

No jumps racing on Monday so next possibility of  a bet will be Huntingdon on Tuesday.The racing should slowly start to build up pace now over the next few weeks and Cheltenham kicks off its season this coming wkend.Small profit over the last couple of days which leaves the running total for the month at +7.55pts.

Sundays Selections

1 winner and one placed selection keeps the profit going for this month.

Limerick looks a good card today like cornas and sonamix but both to short really.3 selections anyway.

430ffos rio gael 1/2pt e/w 6/1 boyle sports bog bigger is available in place
Disappointed that marc aurele has come out the race as opposing him was the first angle into this race.selection has decent form for this level in novice hurdles and handles these conditions well.looks a consistent type who should run his race.

505ffos treasury counsel 1/2pt e/w 20/1 ladbrokes bog again bigger available in places.
Taking a big chance here really do like the favourite but far to short for this grade.This horse has 2 ways off running and can easily see him jumping badly and dropping out the back but the step up in trip may help and has bits of form to see him win this easily off this mark.

435lim 1/2pt e/w paddy pub 10/1 bog ladbrokes 9/1 gen
have to take dancing tornado on at the prices,The selections to have been aimed for this race and a year wiser than last year than when finishing 4th should see him thereabouts.

The racing picks up pace

Running late today sorry jumps action really starts today plenty of action for me today.

325 chep 1 1/2pt win balthazar king 7/2 gen bog
nicholls horse looks obvious one for this season but the ground is a big worry for me
and I'm happy to oppose with a race fit horse that handles these conditions well

400 chep 3/4pt e/w barwell bridge 6/1 gen bog
olofif far to short yes has scope but selection beat him at chelt off levels,
escortman looks a bigger danger but connections don't seem confident really,
selection has just as much scope to improve a others and think the race
could be set up for him if they go a decent gallop

435 chep 1/2pt e/w tin pot man 10/1 gen 11/1 in a couple of places
thinks looks competitive if I'm honest and i may get caught out taking on
a couple of chasers with lenient hurdle marks,The 2 I was interested in was winsley hill and tin pot man
winsley hill is  a mare in form and likely to make this  a true test from the front but im worried a bit
the trip being to sharp and for that reason im with the lightly raced tin pot man
who showed plenty as a novice and looks likely to be suited by this tip

510 chep 1/2pt e/w mount oscar 16/1 gen bog
gullible gordon is obviously well fancied and sure go close but just looks far to short
on what he has shown,mount oscar goes well fresh had some decent form last season and
i think 3mile on decent surface may just be ok for him so at the prices looks plenty value

440 bangor 1/2pt e/w michigan disop 14/1 365 bog 16/1 wills
Think ballydub has a race in him this year but far to short as this may not be
a stiffer enough test,this race seems to lack strength and even though im
worried about the class angle here I think at the prices the selection has
plenty in his favour likes course going ok ground no issues