Sunday 27 February 2011

Schooling Sunday

No joy from the 2 selections yesterday aikedeau was well supported in the end to an sp of 8/1 I hope a few that got the early odds decided to lay off for a free bet as he did not really run his race. Things did not really go to plan with Fistral beach and goes down yet another horse near the front of the market that has let me down.

After racing today at leopardstown today we have the now traditional gallops after racing which I have seen this morning at the races are advertising as schooling Sunday, Sometimes im not sure what we actually gain from these gallops but its nice to be given the opportunity to see these events and I’m sure my Dad will never let me forget a few years ago when sky’s the limit put in a fantastic piece of work and him telling me on numerous occasions before the coral cup that he was the biggest certainty at that year’s festival ,before landing the odds in impressive style with not a penny of my cash on him.

No selections

2.20 leop

Interesting race but strong views can be taken with plenty reverting back to hurdles sublimilty showed little lto but had ran well previously and it would not surprise me to see him run a decent race.

2.50 leop

I’d be against Golan guy here who looks priced up on connections more than anything else he looks a straightforward lay here for me as there are plenty you can give chances to. The 2 I like the most are with whatsabillion and its all hush hush the problem here is they are the next 2 in the market currently and no real value can be had.

3.20 leop

Against another fav here in pittoni who has not got the form to warrant his price. Action master has got the form but is just far too short in a race like this and I’d be happy laying the pair here, plenty of possibilities here ainama and cass bligh are both solid types who should go well but just looks too difficult.

4.25 leop

kilcrea castle is worth a mention here as he has the ability to win a race like this however im sure he is a better horse on a decent surface and he didn’t show enough lto over hurdles for me to get involved today.

3.45 fontwell

My preference here would be celestial halo over karabak at these wights and I expect him to take this on the form we have seen recently.Im a little surprised to see tarkari run here as im sure he has a decent handicap in him off his current mark and a solid run here could see him take a fair rise in the weights.

Saturday 26 February 2011

Saturday

Decided to go with no further selections the horse I was intrestedbin was higgys boy as the trip should bring out some improvement I think today.he does not look the most straight forward though and 10/1 is a bit shorter than the price I was after especially as I also think nicene creed could be very well treated of his current mark.

Friday 25 February 2011

Saturday Early Selections

Not much to report from Fridays racing really for me the mentions did not really run upto the expected standard so glad I took the day off really.Heavy ground again on Saturday at 2 very demanding tracks and im swerving both cards so although there will be an update in the morning it is only for one more horse at kepmton im intrested in.

1.55 kempton akideau 1/2pt e/w 25/1 bet fred bog

If im honest I don’t know a great deal more than anyone else about this horse but should he be the odds he is compared to the favourite who he know meets on 7lbs better terms for 7 lengths I don’t think so.Id be happy taking 16/1 + here as I expect he will get supported.

3.00 kempton fistral beach 1pt e/w 6/1 will hill bog

I don’t tend to get involved with horses this close to the head of the market to often and if im honest my record this season with these types has not been tremendous. However id have fitral beach a 7/2 shot here as im sure the horse is well handicapped and is going to be ideally suited to conditions today. Connections seem hopeful of a big run and sometimes you have to join them.

Friday

Well laterly well and truly made me eat my words winning in very comfortable fashion looking well ahead of his handicap mark. Sometimes a type like this will always make you look silly at the sp of 7/1 was not a bad price at all and those happy  to still get involved despite the drift would have been very happy. The market defiantly corrected itself with my selection eastern clump who was halved in price from the morning 11/1 to an sp of 11/2, he ran a solid race to finish 2nd and I’m sure there will be other days over further and if he brushes up on his hurdling. The big positive is obviously spotting the early value and like I’ve said before as long as I keep doing this the winners will soon follow.

Heavy ground at Warwick does not make much appeal to me and nothing to note on the Irish card so it’s just Sandown to look at.

 No selections 

2.20 Sandown

Denarius is obviously well in on ratings but this is a different test than lto and the interesting one for me here is Lorient express. LE comes here with an absence of 370 days and as a 12 year old would not probably be most peoples likely winner whoever there is good reasoning to think he can run a good race here.Firstly this isn’t the hottest of races and the horse is defiantly taking a decent drop in grade. His record fresh is excellent and I’m sure connections would not be keeping this horse going if they did not think he could be competitive still. His mark whilst 4lbs higher than his best winning mark is still one I think he could go well off as good form has been shown of higher marks than this. Sam Thomas gets on well with the horse and this previous cd winner has conditions to suit as well.

3.25 Sandown

Interesting little novice chase and I think all 3 trainers are trying to get a bit more practice into these novices before they try their hand in completive handicaps during the spring.pepe simo already has a mark which for me is a little too high for what he has shown so far and it will be interesting to see how this works out today.

4.00 Sandown

Prince de seuill is not a horse I can have much confidence in backing but I think connections have found the key to him this season and whilst I would not be rushing out to back him I don’t think he is the worst 7/2 shot ever and I would not want to be opposing here.

4.35 Sandown

Moleskin looks sure to go well here but I’m just not convinced he’s well handicapped at the same time. Theatre dance is on a fair mark but I’m sure he wants to go right handed and I’m not convinced with his will to win at the moment. River Indus could go well at a price as he does like Sandown and but the one I’m most interested in is Antonius ceaser who bounced right back to form lto under a positive ride. A look back at his old form shows he is more than fairly treated and he has gone well round Sandown before and I think he deserves a chance to show he can put a couple of decent efforts together.

 


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Thursday 24 February 2011

Cheltenham Champion Chase

Advised Selection

1 pt each way Sizing Europe 14/1 bet 365 non runner no bet

My current views on the race are on Wedensday Cheltenham page and also I will be using a 4pt max bet staking plan during the 4 days.

Thursday

Little interest for me at Ayr today but thurles and huntingdon both have something to offer. The opening race at thurles should go to quiscover fontaine who looks favourably treated at these weights the rp forecast of 15/8 got me very interested last night but in reality it was never likely to be available this morning and is now more a gen 4/6 shot. Later in the card bishopfurze is trying to get some more experience over hurdles as so far he has been less than convincing in his style, there are a couple more here that are still improving and he is no sure fire winner for me today. The card at Huntingdon has a mix of decent grade novice events and competitive handicaps, the obvious starting point is with starluck making his debut over fences, it will be very interesting to see how he gets on here and he has been supported this last couple of days since the news of ap riding for the arkle, I’d much rather make a decision after seeing the horse jump and have to take shorter odds than getting involved beforehand. My opinion of minella class at the moment is he just won’t be suited to Cheltenham on what I’ve seen so far he is more of a traditional winter horse, that view may change today as I do like the impression captain kirkton has made this season and this will be a decent test today. Going for one selection today in the novice handicap it’s not my most confident selection ever made and probably not the most likely winner of the race but on the balance of things he looks more than fair value.

Advised Selections

2.30 hunt Easton clump 1/2pt e/w 11/1 vc bog

230 hunt
Thuderstorm the likely fav could be very well treated here, there are plenty of ifs and buts though and he has got to step up dramatically on what he has shown so far, I’ll take these types on every day of the week as his price is all about connections and potential. Laterly has showed promise on his runs over hurdles but again the mark is not exactly generous and whilst again could improve especially with his solid flat form he needs to be opposed until showing more at current odds. Mayolyn beat the selection lto at level weights now EC is weighted to turn that form around today, there is a doubt about EC needed a stiffer test but is that a bigger enough doubt to have such a big price gap, for me it’s not and it would not surprise me to see connections make plenty use of him today and try to make this a decent test, he could just be hard to peg back.

440 hunt
I expect today maybe the day for me fein here, showed promise on one run at this course over hurdles then had 3 runs on heavy ground this drying ground should suit and of bottom weight in a low grade it could be his day today. Can’t start putting these types up though as so much does depend on the market support and there are couple more most notably drummers drumming who could also be lined up for big improvement now

Wednesday 23 February 2011

Wednesday

Yesterday’s selection ran a fair race but could not really quicken up, it was obviously pleasing to get iolith beaten and hopefully a few made that option pay.

Few races of interest today and I’ve mentioned 4 horses all are a little unoriginal if im honest and near the front of the market im not going to put any up as selections for that reason but would but nobody off any of them except from a value perspective and it may not be a bad option to combine these in small e/w trebles or something along those lines that suit your betting style.

315 fairy taking stock

Bounced back to form lto after a couple falls over fences looks fairly treated on that run which was in a decent more competitive handicap than this and a reproduction of that run gives him every chance with conditions suiting.

3.40 donc wogan

Im sure there are better 7/4 shots than wogan today but he is the most likely winner for me on a course that suits well he still has some scope I think to improve and not much else would worry me here.

410 don wild dessert

Enjoyed the step up in trip first time in a handicap to win as in comfortable fashion lto.That was also at Doncaster and as long as he stays the extra 4furlongs here I think he still looks fairly treated. Up in grade and weights which are normally my type to oppose but wed has a bit more about him I think.

3.50 lud super Kenny

Has been a little inconsistent for whatever reason but if showing his best form sk looks seriously well treated. Conditions should just about be ok as I don’t think there has been too much rain and will be hard one to beat if back on form today.

Tuesday 22 February 2011

Tuesday

Im currently trying to get as much work done for cheltenham and my time currently is largely being spent foccussing around that.A few may have noticed the pages added on the blog for the festival and im hopefull of having some of my thoughts for the championship races posted on there over this coming weekend.With this in mind im limited on the top im spending on the daily racing,It will be a lot quiter for me in the next couple of weeks but I will be trying to fit in the better grade races and any of my noted horses.

1 race of interest today at taunton with a small selection.


Advised Selections

3.40 Taunton Spear thistle 1/2pt win 16/1 vc bog

Im keen to take the likely fav on here in the shape of Iolith.Hes an unexposed novice who is held in some regard by alan king and the feeling is he is going to turn out a lot better than his current mark,whilst I dont disagree with this he is very short this morning who has plenty to find on the form book taking on some decent solid handicappers.Organisteur was a selection for me lto but for me was beaten before the trip became an issue,we could see him bounce back to form today but hes had a few runs this season now and although he is intresting from a ratings perspective with his jockey taking off 10lbs im not certain he will run to his mark at the moment.Ciceron has been raised 9lbs for his last victory and this does look a little on the harsh side however that was a cd handicap of similar grade and he sets the standard here and is likely to run his race,It needs another career best to win though and 3/1 is poor value.numide is a horse ive got wrong this season when winning 2 runs ago but im sure he needs very testing ground now and has his own idea about things.Spear thistle is intresting here the negatives are he is racing from out the handicap and has to race of a slighlty higher mark than hge has won off previously.on his day though he is a hard horse to pass when getting his way in front, his record in smaller fields is good and I can see his jockey pushing on and trying to make plenty use of the horses stamina today.The ground has nopw turned on the soft side and anymore rain will help.Theres a couple of ways you can play this race for me laying iolith would be one at around 2/1 or below, I also think there is a decent angle in backing spear thistle then laying off in running.The latter is my likely play but for blog purposes its a small win bet.

Running balance Febuary + 22.95 pts

Sunday 20 February 2011

Sunday

Advised Selections

4.40 naas balinahow lady ½ pt e/w 14/1 365 bf c bog
230 market rasen break the chain ½ pt e/w 8/1 365 bog
300 market rasen celticello ½ pt w/w 12/1 vc pp bog

3.35 naas prima vista would probably have been a selection here as he looked a nice solid bet to nothing at around the 5/1 mark however the fav has now come out and that angle has been lost.Expect he should be good enough to take this though.
4.40 naas balinahow lady has to be a selction for me today as this mare is just overpriced for me when you look at her run lto she has similar form to the burrow vic who is half the price and I have them both just marginally clear of the solid raz de maree, ravage dor is apotential improver but needs to do that and look plenty short.BL shouls be well suited by conditions and this mare should run well whilst in her current good form.
230 market rasen break the chain does not look that badly treated on his 3 runs here over hurdles so far and looks a little over priced here.souter point has question marks to answer and id be happy taking edziyad on here as well the likely danger is the fav quite the man who should run well again but is priced accordingly.
300 market rasen celticello has only won a seller recently but his form at market rasen is some of his best,hes racing off a mark he be competeive off and its interesting sam Thomas now takes the mount here.been supported a little this morning and should go well.puerto azul could be a well handicapped horse and looks the main danger.
435 market rasen sycho fred is generally a solid horse at this level round market rasen this is easily his best chance of winning for a good while and I expect him to be thereabouts today, nothing really off putting excepet its low grade affair and id want a couple more points than the top price 4/1 currently available.

Saturday 19 February 2011

Saturday

Selections did not run upto scratch again yesterday, the most dissapointing obviously being walk on who for whatever reason did not run upto his form,there will be other days and im sure money is only borrowed with him.I tend to find these couple of weeks especially the weekend racing tough to  read as many horses have other targets in mind,will be staying with horses ive noted previously and generally very selective with things.saying that I would but nobody off combining a few of the shorter priced mentions today as I'm sweet on most of these.
 
advised bets

 335ascot drill sergeant 1/2pt ew 9/1 wh c bog

320haydock mobasheer 1/2pt ew 15/2 c bog

 310wincanton ma yahab 1/2pt ew 8/1 vc bf c bog 
 
1.20 ascot 

the top 3 have plenty to like about them here but the real stand out for me is tornado bob who made a big improession lto that form looks the best on offer here with the likely hood of more to come.He probably needs a little further to be at his best but I still expect him to be good enough to take this and he could be an interesting outsider for the 2 staying novice hurdle events at the festival at current odds of around 33/1 nrnb looks a fair price.
 
2.25 ascot 

plenty in with claims here im surfe ogee has a decent race in him off around his current mark,the big issue here is the right handed course take into consideration he did not run great first time up and I have to leave him alone really,ive got a couple of these wrong recently so lets hope this one shows up well without winning.
 
300 ascot 

Riverside theatre is a solid fav for me and i expect him to take this however im not going to start putting up 7/4 shots though as thats not what my betting style is about.
 
3.35 ascot 

drill sergeant is a horse I put up at massive odds for last weeks abandoned tote trophy im sure he is fairly treated on the pick of his form and im glad henry brooke is on board claiming the 7lbs again,this trip may just be ideal and i can see him trying to get away with lough derg on the far side and aslong as they both dont take each other on to much I think the winner will come from one of these.
 
1.40 haydock

im keen to take on the chelt form here of local hero and third intention im convinvced the race was not upto the standard its given.houblon des obeaux comes out top rated on figures and looks ideally suited to this conditions.
 
3.20 haydock

mobasheer is a horse ive been interested in for a good while now and he looks fairly treated on his novice chase runs last season and his overall hurdles form,these look ideal conditions for him as he needs this ground to show his best form and is unexposed over this trip that should suit.
 
3.10 wincanton

ma yahab was a selction for me last time out when running well at a decent price,need the blinkers need to work again but the slightly easier trip may just suit here and as long as he gets into a rhythmn early I can see him running a big race.
 
4.50 wincanton

kings of leon showed a lot promise lto weakened nearing the finish when probably just needing the race,should strip fitter this time and as long as this race does not come to soon i expect him to take this as he looks very well treated of his current mark.

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Thursday 17 February 2011

Friday

Premier sagas looks a horse to keep on the right side of and it looks like he heads to Cheltenham now. It was a disappointing run from my selection thumbs up who did not show his best form.The good run of recent form has come to a bit of stand still now and would be nice to get back amongst the winners soon. Not a great deal of interest for me at sandown and fakenham so its just the selections at newbury, im sticking with 2 that were previously advised (see Saturdays note for more details) and also added rebel dancer who looks over priced if coping with the softer ground. Im obviously very keen on walkon and ive been talking up his chances to anyone who will listen for a good while now im sure he is very well treated at the moment so hoping for a big run.

Advised Selections

12.10 newb warnes way 1/2pt e/w 20/1 365 coral bog

1.50 newb walkon 2pt win 5/1 gen bog

1.50 newb rebel dancer 1/2pt e/w 14/1 gen bog

Thursday

Frustarting day yesterday both the advised bets not bringing a return phoenix des mottes probably ran his race and just was not good enough,the frustraing one for me was obviously kilbrish hill who did run to his recent level and then to make matters worse the solid option in dontpaytheferrymen wins the race.Baseball ted was given a favourable mention and won as expected to be the fair the price held up better than I thought and it just shows how this game is all about marginal calls at times.Still in decent shape for the month though and hopefully can build on that over the wkend with something decent racing planned.

Advised bets

315 Kelso thumbs up 1pt win 7/2 vc pp bog


The highlight for me on the ffos las card is the novice hurdle that starts the card teaforthree is a horse a indivisual i like a fair bit,this looks  a decent race and although ap is likely to make plenty use of him I expect they maybe 1 or 2 with more of a finishing kick.
 
240 kelso 
phardessa and always right both look well handicapped horses who could progress well now.difficult to find an angle
 
315 kelso
 
interesting novice chase for me this,premier sagas for me needs further than this and this race could be about giving the horse a little more experience jumping at speed before sent into a handicap over further.alfie fits has been a little out of sorts recently and needs to be taken on untill showing more.Kings of the gypsies looked to be running a solid race lto but that race was only 8 days ago and looks plenty short for me as he does need to improve on his hurdles form to take this.Thumbs up has not been 100% convincing since taking to fences but has still shown a similar level of form to that he did over hurdles he is the one for me who ideally suited by conditions today and looks sure to run his race and will probably be a little straighter this time out as well.

Wednesday 16 February 2011

Wednesday

No luck with yesterdays selections tooman lane was soon beaten once he made a couple of mistakes,Tinseltown showed he can win a race though he just found the test too much after pulling a little to hard early.

Not much to report on today's cards for me but there are a couple of handicaps that I'm intredted in and think I have a couple which are fair prices.

Advised bets

210 leicester Phoenix DES mottes 1/2pt each way 8/1 gen 
bog

350 muss kilbranish hill 3/4pt each way 9/1 coral bog


210 Leicester Pdm has been slowly returning to form recently put up his best performance for some time lto and handicap mark is a winnable one now.there are a couple here that may be held by there marks now and although the selection may want slightly further I'm hoping they make a bit more use of him today.price is fair for the risk.

340  Leicester baseball ted should go close here has plenty i'n his favour only thing that's off putting is the price.

350 miss dontpaytheferryman is respected here but he is plenty short enough I also think there are not many i'n here that are going to really enjoy year conditions today.kilbranish hill has shown consistent form on his last couple of runs and a reproduction of recent form has him top rated for me.expected this one to be a fair bit shorter this morning and I'm more than happy with the price this morning and confident of a good run.

Feb running balance +31.4

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Tuesday 15 February 2011

Tuesday

Low grade racing today had a good look through the cards though and going with 2 small selections not over confident about either but think prices are fair on both.

Advised Selections
3.10 Newcastle Tooman lane 1/2pt win 15/2 vc bog
4.40 Newcastle Tinseltown 1/2pt each way 8/1 pp bog

Folkestone
3.30 giant o murchu is interesting prospects in a weak race from a good stable price has gone this morning though but expect a good run.
4.30 felt a few of these could be competitive here and its look a tough little handicap to solve for the grade captain smoothly would probably be the most likely winner for me but I would be surprised to see Thompson run better than his odds suggest as on bits of his form he does look fairly treated.
Newcastle
1.40 luck sunny should be fav here for me showed enough in recent runs to suggest can win a race of this grade and no issue with conditions for me.
2.10 catholic hill could run a race here may be flattered on his run lto but current mark does look a winnable one.6/1 not really the price im after though when you have a few with claims.
3.10 tooman lane is a bit of a risky one here and I get the feeling we will know the fate here soon into the race. Showed nothing really on his debut run in this country but it is most likely he needed that outing badly, these conditions are the ones he did well in when raced in Ireland and on the pick of his form he looks a well-treated horse if able to bounce back to form.
3.40 kings chrosister im sure can win a race of his current mark in the form he is in at the moment, however he has decent lord to beat here which is going to be very difficult and kc is not the most straightforward so little value at the moment.
4.10 itsteescomponents looks the most likely winner for me has been brought along slowly I think this season, showed a bit more lto course distance winner and looks on a fair mark now.
4.40 tinseltown is worth a small investment for here as he has shown more than enough on his last 2 hurdles runs to suggest he can win a handicap of around this mark. Stayed on late through beaten horses last time over similar conditions to today and a reproduction of that run put gives him place claims at minimum in a race where not many have claims, take into consideration he may now have some improvement in him then I think the price this morning is generally a fair one. From the top 2 im more concerned about night in Milan and he is the stand out danger for me here.

Febuary running Balance + 31.90 pts

Sunday 13 February 2011

Sunday

Just selections today.

2.50 navan oscar dan dan 1/2pt e/w 12/1 pp bog
4.00 hereford whataboutya 1/2pt e/w 33/1 365 bog
4.10 Exeter Or Bleu 3/4pt e/w 5/1 gen bog

Saturday 12 February 2011

Saturday Update

1.55 newb warnes way 1/2pt each way 25/1 365 coral bog
3.35 newb walkon 1 1/2pt each way 15/2 365 bog 5 places
3.10 warw red mile 1/2pt each way 10/1 gen bog
1.10 leop sailors warn 3/4pt each way 6/1 pp wh bog
2.45 leop oscars well 3/4pt each way 15/2 coral bog
3.50 leop sounds of jupiter 1/2pt each way 12/1 365 wh bog

Friday 11 February 2011

Saturday Early Thoughts

Early selections

Champion hurdle 1pt each way walkon 33/1 bet365 non runner no bet
3.35 newbury Drill sergant 1/2pt each way 40/1 365 5 places bog
3.35 newbury Tarkari 3/4pt each way 25/1 365 pp 5 places bog

Newbury
1.20
This looks to be between the top 2 on hurdles form shown and it will also be interesting to see how the highly rated flat horse oasis knight gets on especially as he receives up to 10lbs from his main 2 rivals. Kid Cassidy has 2 rock solid runs round this course even if there is an argument to say he did not progress as expected last time out and sets the standard and despite having to give weight away looks sure to be involved. AL ferof is receiving weight from his main opponent and its interesting connections are dropping him back in distance here, for me things have not really gone to plane so far for him over hurdles but he likes it round here and he is my idea of the winner receiving weight from kc.
1.55
Sangfroid is the benchmark horse here for me and helps me analysis the race through my ratings he’s not out of it either today but his consistency makes it very difficult for him to win.Ackertrac needs to find some improvement to win this that’s not probably out of the question but my call would be to take him on. awesome Freddie and no principles all unexposed and could show more again however they are all up in grade and 2 are racing off much higher marks than winning lto and would rather be against these. Valentine vic is interesting and not totally out of it from this mark for me, I don’t know a great deal about the horse but it looks like he has had a few problems and I do recall him having a breathing problem, it will be interesting to see what the early morning vibes are. The shortlist for me at the time of writing are warnes way , sir keezbah and cappagh.Warnes way has ran funny races the last 2 occasions losing ground both times before then staying on to good effect, I think he is up to this grade of race and its interesting connections now step him up in trip his best form has come when there is plenty of give in the ground and that has to be slight worry. Sir keezbah looks generally exposed but his latest 2 runs for me are both pieces of rock solid handicap form for this level, the 3 mile looks an interesting option now and his racing style suggest this will not be a problem decent claimer taking 7lbs off is sure to help and I can see him running well. Cappagh looks on a fair mark here on the overall balance of his form looks unexposed as a hurdler over this trip still and despite me thinking he has to have a few things drop right for him you can hardly argue with his win to run record.
2.25
I can see this being a true test with both ogee and fair along taking each other on at the front of the field here.Id hope ogee runs a respectably race as im sure he has a race in him at the right level but he will more than likely be outclassed here near the finish. What a friend is the most solid horse for me as he has the most solid profile over this trip he has to give weight to an unexposed type though in riverside theatre that for me was always going to improve over this trip. Kempton clearly suits him well but there is nothing to suggest he is just a Kempton specialist for me and receiving weight he is going to be a hard horsed to beat. The only other for me worth mentioning is noland as it would not surprise me to see him return to form here and if he does you have to say he holds claims receiving weight from his main 2 opponents. I think he has shown enough over shorter distances on heavy ground to suggest this trip on decent ground will not be a problem and the issue is obviously more about his current form. A small play on noland his current odds could be the call for me.
3.00
With woolcombe folly coming out of this the race has now opened up considerably. French opera is now fav and with the ground now much more in his favour you have to expect a big showing and he looks the one to beat. Cornas is a likeable type but I think last time out was his day and he may just struggle giving weight away now. It’s not impossible to think thcicho polis is going to be ridden very positively with ap on board and make this a solid test he has ran well on left handed course but for me he is at is best going right handed and I don’t think a solid test will cause a problem to French opera either and he did beat tp at ayr over 20f last season.Oiseau de nuit is a horse I had decent hopes for at the start of the season but he has not really gone on as expected I would not rule him out in small field but he does have it to prove at the moment. Sport line is interesting here for me especially with Timmy murphy taking over on a horse who I think will suit his style of riding he had some decent from in Ireland last season and although he does not always find a great deal he could still be a little unexposed at this level. Imsingingtheblues has ran respectably in races this season that he has had little chance of winning he was unsuited by the ground lto and receiving weight today he also comes into it for me.In summary at the moment this looks more open than the market suggests and it would not surprise me to see one of the so called outsiders go close with French opera being the most likely winner from the head of the market.
3.35
Now doesn’t this look simple. This is my type of race I love trying to solve, the shortlist for me is in no particular order is walkon, the betchworth kid , tarkari , drill sergeant , and rebel dancer.The betchworth kid and rebel dancer meet here a couple of runs back on similar terms and that is the price of form which says to me they can both involved again here.Tbk may be slightly better suited by the way this is likely to be ran and he could come out on top this time but it would be a marginal call.Drill sergant is likely to try and get on with things from the front which is going to be some task in a race of this nature, he was unsuited by the trip and riding style lto and I do think even though he has his own idea about things he is on fair mark for a horse of his ability.henry brooke is not a bad 7lb claimer and he can make this light weight I can see him running better than his odds suggest.Tarkari is joint top rated on my figures here, for me he is an ideal type for this race as he is best coming off a very fast pace,Maybe a little flattered by his run last week but his overall profile suggest he is ahead of the handicapper for me.Walkon is a horse Im a big fan off,top class juvenile who returned this season with an excellent run at ascot.I cant see connections risking him here if he was not hundred percent,trainer expected him to improve from last time,this race will be run to suit and this tough type is a rock solid favourite for me here.
4.05
Poor turnout as often is the case in novice chases this time of year. Aiteen thirtythree is a horse going places for me and I would be looking no further.
Leopardstown
1.10
Indain daudale and unaccompanied have to improve again obviously this is likely but id rather be against at the prices.sailors warn did things nicely lto has no issue with these conditions and for me has the best form here.chaperoned could run a better race then her odds suggest especially if this is ran at a strong pace.
1.45
This is a more suitable test for mikeal d` haguenet and I expect him to bounce back to form and take this.
2.45
Plenty of unexposed potential improvers here zaidpour is a nice prospect but far to short for me overall form is good but needs to improve again.hidden universe is interesting but is another priced up on connections and has to improve again. Shot from the hip was a big fancy for me in chelt bumper last season and has slowly improved over hurdles he is a classy horse on his day and I could see him being involved however the one that stands out for me at the moment is Oscars well who is 2 from 3 this season and has not stopped improveing with every run.Lto he won easily again and comes here for me with the best form the drop back in trip should be ok on this very testing ground and I expect him to go close.
3.15
Not much between a few of these which makes joncol a bad price and money trix the value out the front 2.Would be really nice to the listener run a good race here and he has not got to find a great deal on his run lto to be involved.Should be fitter today and he and money trix looks the best at the odds.
3.50
Competitive handicap 2 that stand out for me are sounds of Jupiter and might be magic who are very closely matched on there recent runs.mutaderak was a selection lto but has more on his plate today and with sounds of Jupiter now being having a 5lb claimer on board he would be my choice.
Warwick
1.40
The quantum kid showed up well for a good while when looking like needing the run a step up on that form is needed but he is unexposed and a good run would not surprise.
2.10
Few of these have chances on there best for fiendish flame is genrally consistent and this looks a more suitable test today.
2.40
Finnians rainbow is the obvious one but it would not surprise me to see stagecoach pearl run him close here.
3.10
Red mile is a noted horse for me and im sure there are races in him off this mark.calpsyo bay is the solid one and should be thereabouts.
3.45
Alfie sherrin will need to be near his best to give weight to a couple of these,he is a nice unexposed type tough who is well suited to this trip.
4.20 little between the emma lavelle horses here and tey should both be involved.penny max should enjoy the step up in trip and is preferred.
4.55
Interesting bumper elegant touch sets the form standard but theatre guide is well though off by connections and should go well.

Friday

Well you have to be happy with days like yesterday 2 winning selections at 13/2 and 9/1.Was nice to see premier des marias win as he did and its very rewarding when things work out like that, when you have noted a horse from his previous run.Highway code was obviously a lucky winner but at the same time they all count and im not going to be complaining when your lucks in.He looked guranteed for place but needs to hurdle better if he is to progress further now.Was also nice to see a couple of the mentions run as expected and I cant be more happier with how things are going at the moment.

Interesting cards today kempton being the highlight,I do think the racing is tricky today and im very much on the cautious side of things today.Im going with 3 selections the first 2 are not the most solid selections I have made but I do think the prices are worth the risk.


130 kempton balerina 1/2pt e/w 14/1 vc coral bog

Firstly fav is a crazy price and makes the market here for me to find a selection which looks fair value.There are a few in here who could now show a fair deal of improvement and for me balerina is one of these but at the same time he has already shown enough to say he can be thereabouts in a race like this.3 runs and has slowly improved with each off them,Expect this course to suit well and can see him going well at a nice price.

310 kempton el diego 1/2pt e/w 20/1 gen bog

Plenty of potential improvers here and there are more than a couple that have interesting connections behind them who are more than capable of landing a touch.El diego was a selection lto and frankly ran a poor race first time in a handicap,Im sure hopwever he had shown enough promise to suggest he can win a race of around this mark.I think this track and better ground will suit and I think the jockey booking is interesting.Plenty of risk here but big price and worth a small investment for me.

345 kempton

Always been a fan of crack away jack and it will be interesting to see how he progresses on his come back trail today but really there is plenty in punchestowns favour today and it does look like his race to give away, that said I think its a brave one who gets involved at odds on.

420 kempton soixante 1pt win 11/2 vc 365 bog

Support is starting to come for soixante and Id want to be taking 5/1 + here.Firstly the negative is the stable are still not flying however soixante for me has plenty in his favour today.Loves kempton and I think its only one poor run here when probably needing that outing.Shows his form this time of season,Ground and trip shouild just about be ok and the biggest positive has to be ap back on board.

225 muss

Similar to lake legend yesterday if there is a short price horse who I dont think is bad value today and thats alderley rover who has showed more than enough this season to such he can win a race like this.sitting tennant is the obvious danger but he has plenty to find and is coming back from a big lay off.

300 muss

The bottom 2 have form which gives them chances here but for me I could see stormy weather enjoying these conditions today and ouit classing his rivals 5/2 in a tricky handicap is tight though so best watched.

410 muss

This looks a tricky handicap plenty have claims on there best for my choice would be zitenka but could probably have a few goes at this and still not find the winner.

Just a quick point that I will be attending Newbury tommorrow so to give the cards justice I will be aiming to post a full anaylsis latter today and maybe some early selections with a further update of any other selections in the morning.I will update on twitter when blog is updated or you can drop me an email to be added to the mail list.

Running total Febuary + 17.2pts

Thursday 10 February 2011

Thursday

Poor day yesterday for the selections,Was a bad call I think by myself for going with companero as he had not showed enopugh lto to suggest he was back to form easy to say these things after the event though.

2 ok cards plenty of interest but just a couple of selections,I probably could have gone with more today so hoping ive gone with the right 2.

230 taunton

To many unxpopsed types to get involved here but just a quick point that clowance house does have solid flat form and has showed up wel on both his starts over hurdles.I dont think he should be around the 6/1 mark this morning for a horse that has a fairly solid profile.

300 taunton

I think there are far worse even money shots than Lake legend and he would be a confident selection here,was the best off these over hurdles and his run lto is off a standard to suggest he should take this with the likelyness of more to come.Earth planet has genrally been dissapointing for me this season.

330 taunton highway code 3/4pt e/w 9/1 pp

Few improving types here and I think you can include highway code in that group as well,looked top have his race won lto when falling at the last.Mark has gone up but on my ratings he can still be competetive here and I prefer his form to arrayan.we may have seen how good credit swap is and I think he needs to find more improvement now handicapping and looks to short for me here.James pollard shpwed more lto and would not be out of it but he was quirky on the flat and the call is to oppose,ajman looks to be on a fair mark still but he may just need this outing and think connections may have other races in mind in the future.


400 taunton

Low grade mares race but I think saulty max deserves a mention as she showed plenty of promise lto,should probably come on for that one cheek pieces back on and is one of only a few guranteed to stay this trip.Stavble are coming back to form now and should go well.

500 taunton

Not a race I want to get involved in but theres not much between a lot of this and it would not suprise me to see mayberry run a better race than she has the last couple of outings at a fair price.

140 hunt premier des marias 1pt win 13/2 coral

PDM is a horse I noted lto as one I wanted to be with next time.Find it interesting that connections have stepped him up in trip but looked at is form theree are a couple of runs which suggest he should stay this trip.For me he is a fairly treated horse at the moment and it will only be a matter of time before he is rated higher than his current mark.The race has plenty of runners but does not look that competetive.

210 hunt

plenty of doubts about a few here which makes me think the 4/1 about most likely winner silver dollars is not to bad a price as he comes here at the top of his form.bennythejets looks the main danger if ready after a 3 month break.

240 hunt

The old pretender makes plenty of interest here.Was a decent bumper horse then showed plenty of promise over hurdles.Showed litlle lto after a long lay off but now chasing off what looks a very fair mark based on his overall abilty shown so far.Conditions look ideal and I expect he will go very close today.Id really would be confident of a big showing however The price of 6/1 is a couple of points shorter than ideal,taking into consideration the fact we have never seen this horse jump a fence, and the concern he did not show a great deal lto.


340 hunt

The market leaders do look solid here with burnt oak and lastroseofsummer bogth having plenty in there favour.one worth a mention at a massive price is kavaloti who showed nothing on a recenet return but did show tiny bits over hurdles a couple of years ago and in general has decent flat form.

Wednesday 9 February 2011

Wednesday

All the selections yesdterday were well supported at some point before the race but it was left to ice image the final selection to gurantee a couple of points profit on the day.Nothing really else to report gaora lane ran poorly again and looks one to stay away from whilst galley slave chased a far to fast pace.I think silver roque has to come out with some credit there.

2 tracks I generally enjoy looking at today and the races are all of a bit better standard.Im very keen on the first 2 today but I have decided to go with a e/w double rather than big singles bets as the prices are border line on both horses for me and they are more selections based on my confidence of them winning today.


240 carl duke of malfi 7/2 gen bog

This wont take much winning for me and shelomah looks the main danger simply though a reproduction of duke of malfi last run and he should take this.Conditions look similar to then and im confident he should be involved.

420 carl double default 5/1 gen bog

Think the market is wrong here and I have double default fav here for me.returned to form lto conditions suit, well handicapped and cheekpieces maybe help with horses concentration.

3/4pt e/w double

345 carl companero 1/2pt e/w 13/2 hills bog

Showed nothing really lto after a break and that why i think we are getting an ok price here about a generally consistent type.Conditions look ideal and this is not that competetive for me.

325 ludlow cloudy spirit 1/2pt e/w 14/1 pp bog

Not really a fan off mares races as the form can be so in and out but im pretty keen on cloudy spirit here and a double figure price is to big for me.Her form is a bit inconsistent but her record when paul moloney rides is excellent and a return to a course and distance that should suit well im willing to have a small investement.


400 ludlow

bible lord is good enough to take this and is certainly well treated its a marginal decision but id want at least 7/1+ and I think with the issues with his jumping and difficulty to win with i have to leave alone currently.

Tuesday 8 February 2011

Tuesday

With the 1 non runner I was left with just maximix yesterday and once he made the mistake on the back straight I think that was enough for him and he ran no race at all afterwards.

4 selections today all small but all look over priced at the same time.

305 market rasen galley slave 1/2pt e/w 25/1 hills bog

like silver roque and has a potential improver here but 3/1 is a crazy prize and ive decided to have a small bet on gallery slave who lacks the scope to improve like some of these but has solid form at this grade on this ground and ran well on the course lto.Think this extra distance will suit was staying on lto and could see him getting involved at nice odds.

335 market rasen gaora lane 1/2pt e/w 15/2 hills coral bog

Gaora lane has been out of form for a while now and has only ever won a maiden a chase.This however is another big drop in grade and he has received some serious help from the handicapper conditions no problem and this trip looks about right like the blinkers on and if he is to return to form it should be today.

155 sedg railway park 1/2pt e/w 11/2 gen bog

Railway park has to be a selection for me today as I think he is a big price when looking at his run lto.2 of his opponents then repose today and with the small weight pull this time I expect him to go close against these and we are only talking small distances with poor grade horses anyway.transact far to short was a poor race lto and comes out on a low rating for me and chorister is priced short due to connections.

325 sedg
Overlady if ready should win this for me but long lay off and form is over fences so best left.

355 sedg 1/2pt e/w ice image 9/1 coral bfred bog

Ice image is interesting for me here first glance says you can probably rule out as he a maiden from 29 attempts however he ran with a great deal of promise lto and looks fairly treated on the pick of his form,2miles round here looks ideal and I could see him racing prominently and sticking on well.

February running total +3.70 pts

Monday 7 February 2011

Monday

2 nice winners yesterday with maridima sticking on well from the front as expected, and the best from a profit side of things being royal wedding winning at an sp of 10/1 im sure I noticed it drift pre race as well to around 11/1 after some early market support. It was Nice to turn things straight back around yesterday even if it was only to recover from Saturday and I pretty much start the new week as I went into the weekend. Like I said yesterday im really happy with how im reading the cards at the moment and the key thing for me is that many of the horses im supporting are being well backed which normally suggest that I am finding horses that are overpriced in the early markets and if you keep doing that the winners and profit should follow. The Ayr card has been lost this morning which is a big shame as we need some northern racing at the moment and it was not to bad a card. Lingfield is not so good and it’s surely going to be pretty testing out there today,I do have a few views about the handicaps and a couple that do look overpriced.

310ling sole agent 1/2pt e/w 12/1 gen bog

I willing to give sole agent a chance to see this trip out under rules on ground he enjoys. The horse generally travels well over shorter distances and does not look badly treated in what is a poor race. Many of his opponents today will handle the ground but at the same time are unlikely to show there best. The price looks more than fair this morning to make up for the risk about the trip, I would be very hopeful if he stays he runs a big race.

340ling

Canshebemine is my idea of the likely winner here, snow patrol and Swiss Guard have had plenty of chances recently and don’t look up to much whilst just beware prefers better ground. The only issue I have with canshebemine is the price as due to the lay off and the poor race I wanted around the 9/2 – 5/1 mark.

415 ling maximix 1pt win 8/1 365 bog

Money is just starting to come for maximix and im not surprised to see that as we know this horse shows his best form on heavy ground. I supported him of a 10lbs higher mark a couple of runs ago when he did his usual thing of dropping himself out before staying on late, this course does suit him though and this step up in trip looks a benefit now. Yes he’s a character and he is a risk but again the odds are more than fair at the moment and after supporting of higher marks im not going to let him run unsupported today.

445 ling

I have top smart well clear here and he is my most likely winner I expect today. Conditions and the extra trip should suit and he is well clear on my ratings. Again price is the issue here and against a couple who could still improve on past form like kalamill, down in grade and chase gate, unexposed handicap campaign it’s a race best left.


February running total +4.70 pts

Sunday 6 February 2011

sunday

Not much I can say about yesterday maybe I knew it was going to be one of those days when Crescent Island won the first race of interest on the day. Im sure for whatever reason I got the ground wrong at Sandown as plenty of horses just did not travel yesterday and they was finishing very tired for me. Has to just go down as one of those days though which is frustrated when you put so much time and effort into things and get nothing in return. Feel good in my form at the moment though so hopefully the loss is short lived.

Big shame we have lost leopardstown today the domestic action is not to bad and im keen on a few again today.

1pt e/w double

250 fontwell portrait royale 4/1 pp bog
335muss kudu country 11/2 pp bog

I’m really keen on both these horses today the biggest problem for me is how to stake these today as I don’t want to be throwing points everywhere and start chasing after yesterday.Id like to hope I can get a decent amount running onto the 2nd horse here today.Potrait royale would probably the slightly weaker selection but its not a competitive race and she’s a consistent sort who I think should be a point or so shorter today.Kudu country was a horse I liked last season in the fred winter he chased the pace to early that day but showed he can run well in decent handicaps.Ran a race full of promise lto and hopefully he will sit behind hunterview an drill sergeant who could take each other on here early.

325 fontwell maridima 1/2pt e/w 8/1 vc bog

Looks to be returning to some kind of form likes course and a reproduction of lto should put him bang there against a few unexposed under priced horses.

400 fontwell royal wedding 1pt win 9/1 vc 365 bog

Bit of support for this one already this morning and confident ive spotted one here promising run lto when looked like needed run looks fairly treated on best form last year conditions suit and opposition all have plenty of doubts about them.

200 muss grandad bill 1/2pt e/w 12/1 365 vc bog

More exposed than most of the fancied runners but slipping down to a mark he can be competitive of and saves best for this course, looks overpriced this morning.

410 muss kit Carson 1/2pt win 18/1 gen bog

Elite land is respected but he comes out marginally in front of kit Carson on my ratings and although kc is not as good as he was anything near the run of lto and he should be thereabouts price is too big despite the lay off.



February running total -6.60 pts

Saturday 5 February 2011

Saturday

No damage done yesterday with ma yahab running well to grab a place at decent sp of 14/1.big outlay for me today of 11points but competitive high class racing is my main focus so no issues there and all would warrant the same process as any other day.

Ffos las

Henderons should take the first 3 races here in what should be another great day for him as he is also likely to have another winner in loose performer later on the card and at least one at Sandown. The obvious one to talk about is Oscar whisky who I will be watching with interest today as I believe connections are still unsure as to what way to go with this horse but either way he is a horse I like a fair bit.

310 character building 1/2pt e/w 16/1 gen bog minella four star 1/2pt win 10/1 gen bog

tricky race plenty in with chances on pieces of form but I do think the market has this run.minella four star interesting if ready after a break that is the big question mark for me and deciding if 10/1 is worth the risk is a marginal decision but he has been nibbled at this morning and I think he is worth a small investment,theatre dance selection lto but this looks tougher and the one im most keen on today at a decent price is character building who yes does need everything to fall right for him but he looks to be in decent form of late and is n a nice mark racing over a flatter course which I think tends to suit him a little better good jockey on board for his style and just looks overpriced for me.

345 je ne sais plus 1pt win 5/1 gen bog

Was looking forward to seeing battle group run here as I have in mind for pertemps which he already has a nice mark for but is now a non runner,shoegazer respected dropped in trip which should suit. je ne sais plus is worth an investment though for me as she comes out top rated on my figures on her best form and has not really had things go her way on a couple of occasions easy to forgive lto and looks well enough treated with conditions to suit.

wetherby

210 think market has this right as lease land is still improving and likely to run well here no value in the price however. Race regal height well in on old form but as good now for me. crescent island is the interesting one for me here and im hoping today is not the day as although he has gone well fresh before and is well treated im thinking connections may have something lined up for him in a few weeks time.

245 This could prove tactical there is little between chester lad and double expresso for me here but at the same time both don’t look rock solid.It would not surprise me to see always bold bounce back to some decent form and if doing so he would be the stand out for me.6/1 top price this morning though and id think there are better opportunities.

315 wayward prince should give weight away here for me and id think there are worse even money shots not my kind of bet but id rather be with than against.For me the main danger may come from cape tribulation who will find this a more suitable test.

sandown

225 1/2pt e/w hidden keel 10/1 gen bog

Fascinating race for me medrmit is respected and does have the best form on offer however he has to be taken on as fav here especially when for me the next few in the market all have some serious doubts about then and are priced up on conntections.Mr gardner is a realy interesting one for me here as he has plenty of scope to improve and is nice imposing type, at 8/1 id put nobody off but I believe there is a horse of even better value in this race in the shape of hidden keel,who showed plenty promise at a lower level over hurdles even though he did try to give grand crus weight earlier this season and was not disgraced. He may need further in time but lto he made big impression for me jumping very well and although only beating lower grade horse lto I can see him stepping up today.

300 1/2pt e/w dansimar 25/1 365 bog 1/2pt e/w supreme de paille 16/1 365 bog

Don’t think this is that tough but I never do when breaking down these big runner handicaps the shortlist is a follows dansimar kilcrea kim mister hyde supreme de paille like a hurricane these are all respected from a form perspective but I then need to evaluate which offer the best value mister hyde is far to short as is like a hurricane who should be the same price as supreme de paille who for me is worth and investment.Dansimar has less scope to improve but is likely to run his race and looks a massive price.Kilcrea kim is difficult as I don’t think he is a bad price and has solid form but the bigger prices on the other 2 swerve me towards them.

335 theatrical moment 1pt e/w 13/2 gen bog

take the breeze respected here but I really like the chances theatrical moment who has plenty in his favor today back on a decent ground round a course that should suit well and with the tongue strat now added,I sometimes struggle to read jonjos handicappers but hopefully have this one right.

405 king Edmund 1pt e/w 10/1 gen bog

Another confident selection for me here im sure the front 3 in the market all want a softer surface to show there best form and im sure king Edmund has decent race in him off his current mark price is more than fair this morning and Im hopeful of a big run.

440 wyck hill ¾ pt e/w 16/1 hils coral

Again im fairly confident here about wyck hill but I think this race is more competitive so I have tried to pull the staking back a little bit however im sure this horse is well treated of his current mark an then take the riders claim into consideration and im sure connections think this can run a big race today.


February running total +4.40 pts

Friday 4 February 2011

Friday

Disappointing yesterday not to get a result sir Winston ran his usual race and despite looking well treated he just cant seem to quicken a point well highlighted by Ian aka the wayward lad who also mentioned to me the 2nd horse at huge odds on a email prior to the race. Dooneys gate was well supported all day and went on to justify this with an effortless victory whilst.ballyvegan was traveling well still when falling and I expect a place was at least guaranteed although it was to early to suggest he would have won.

Unfortunately lost catterick this morning where I did have 2 possible selections but racing is a little better in quality today.I Like a few today but cant get the prices currently so 2 small selections for me.

225 bangor

I expected morecambe to be shorter this morning which is a shame because I really wanted to take him on with kingsmere who is well bred for this trip and showed promise on runs so far to suggest he is fairly treated.Market has this about right though so just a watching brief now.

405 bangor ma yahab ½ pt e/w 11/1 365 whill bog

Im taking a chance that ma yahab bounces back to form here as he has plenty in his favour today and id think if he is ever going to then today is the likely day.Showed very little lto but this is the horses grade/trip/jockey,ground suits blinkers back on and obviously well treated on best form.

305chep dromore hill

Dromore hill has solid claims here but hes a little one paced and is not exactly well treated enough to be a 4/1 shot.


340 chep yelthom ½ pt e/w 8/1 gen bog

sherwani wolf is unexposed but has to be taken on and I rate naje de thaix as likely danger but he is also not the most consistent horse. Yelthom is down in grade today and would have gone closer lto if not for a mistake at the last trip ground ideal could take some catching from the front.

415 chep

rateable value would be the horse I am most keen on today, Everything looks suitable today and im sure he is well treated 7/2 was the price I wanted so I have to swerve at best price 11/4.

February running total +4.50 pts

Thursday 3 February 2011

Thursday

After a good start to the month things did not really go to plan yesterday for me,the last 2 selections did not really run much of a race but I would be interested in the first selection prince of forwards in the future as for whatever reason the horse lost plenty of ground racing on the outer and also lost a fair bit of track posisition before staying on late through beaten horses. Racing today is interesting enough with a decent hunters chase at wincanton and a couple of decent events over in Ireland.Going with a small e/w double on 2 solid chances in Ireland and a couple of selections on noted horses.

315 clonmel fists of fury 10/3vc bog

Think the fav is to short here as he needs to improve his jumping and hes taken on with a horse who is improving with every run this season.

415 clonmel dooney gate 10/3 vc bog

Think this is a match between the selection and catch me,dooney gate is marginally preferred with conditions looking ideal and a eye catching run lto after a break.

1/2pt each way double

250 win
Just a quick point here for those thinking osric is a steering job today.Yes he looks well treated but id be seriously concerned about race tactics here and for me it might be an idea to see who goes on early here and get involved in running on the leader as they just get a soft lead and steal the race from the front.

350 win sir Winston 3/4 pt e/w 6/1 fred whill bog

Been running consistently this season apart from lto where the ground did not suit. 3miles on a sharp course with decent ground are what this horse needs for me.Did not look badly treated but now is being claimed off aswell,cheekpieces may bring out a little more as well and it looks as if todays the day for this one.



310 tow balleyegan 3/4pt e/w 13/2 365 vc bog

Balleyegan is down in grade here and for me was an eye catcher lto looking as in need of a stiffer test,upped in trip over the same unique course I expect him to go close. Glebhall bay is hard to asses on his run lto but percentage call is to take on at the prices whilst atherstone hill has to be respected but is up in grade and weights.

February running total +5.25 pts

Wednesday 2 February 2011

Wednesday

Nice start to the month yesterday with karky Shultz sticking on well to win and returning at a nice sp of 14/1.Red law ran no race after jumping poorly which again makes me question the low grade selections.


215 down royal prince of forwards 1/2pt e/w 9/1 whill bog

Prince of forwards has generally been running well and slowly improving this season with just the one poor run when probably finding the trip too far, Has little to find with the fav here on my ratings and this looks a slightly easier race than some he has been competing in. Conditions look ideal and would have this priced up at least a couple of points shorter.

350 Newcastle
Jeringa is my idea of the winner here looks on a fair mark especially now being claimed off, Price does not really scream value for me though in this grade and although trip should be ok I think 20f Sedgefield are ideal conditions.

230 Leicester Vics world 1/2pt e/w 7/1 whills 365 bog

Showed up better lto when coming back from a lay off and im sure the better ground will suit well here, looked to have a race in her of around this mark when showing up well in the summer and worth a small interest in a race where few are in any kind of form.

400 leicester 1/4pt e/w drussel 100/1 365 bog 1/4pt e/w dots delight 33/1 365 hills bog

The fav should win this really if running to the same level of form as last time but with him being priced so short I simply have to look elsewhere as he takes up such a large perentage of the market. Ive placed both these horses on betfair and looking at trading off but for account they will go as small ew bets. drussel had some decent form in Ireland and has stayed on through beaten horses so far for new trainer has a race in him at some point. dots delight holds her form well these days and does not have much to find taking the fav out of this.

February running total +7.75 pts

Tuesday 1 February 2011

Tuesday

Disappointing end to the month with 2pts lost yesterday I have to be happy with the fact the month finished in profit though from the position I was in during the middle part of January. Folkestone looks moderate racing for me today and not much interest there taunton is a little better and going to have 2 small bets there and would also put nobody of the other horse.

Taunton

2.20 Don’t think you can make a rock solid case for any of these here, few of these have the potential to improve but the one I like the most is ranjobaie,who for me showed enough lto despite not jumping great and is thereabouts on hurdles form.Conditions should suit well and expect him to go close, top price 11/4 is a bit short though.

320 red law 1pt win 10/3 365 bog

Im cautious here about getting involved in a low grade race like this but im confident red law is a well handicapped horse at the moment considering he has been dropped 5lbs for a decent run lto. That was the first time he had shown any promise really and obviously it is a small concern he needs to reproduce that effort again but if doing so I cant see much else getting involved. The slight drop back in trip should suit as the run did flatten out a little last time. I think price is more than fair and is a Confident selection but staking reduced due to the grade of the race.

350 karky Schultz 1/2pt e/w 10/1 gen bog

Tenor nivernais is the obvious place to start and normally these are the one im keen to take on but for me he is a fairly solid fav and my only concerns are the race coming to soon and the price.Kings revenge is respected on a rating perspective but he is a bit of a character and can probably be left alone for now. Henry king has not stopped improving this season but up in grade and plenty short enough for me.teshali and my shamwari are the potential improvers but neither have shown me enough to suggest they are well treated and I think it’s a better option to go with solid handicap form. Karky Schultz is the interesting one for me here as he showed he was near his best lto with a good run from the front. Has won races of a slightly higher mark and although he may get taken on a little bit here this track should suit his style well and at a double figure price I think he is worth a small investment.

Ending balance January +9.8pts