Sunday 31 October 2010

Sunday update 2 for JP ??

Having 2 more bets today at cork not concenred about the outlay for the day.You have to look at each bet individually and on any other day these would be selections.

220 streets of gold 1/2pt e/w 10/1 hill lad coral bog
doubts about a few here at the front of the market,like the profile of this one good run over trip to short last and looks to have a decent handicap in him this season.should appreciate the trip.

325 farringdon 2pt win 11/4 pp bog 5/2 gen
like this horse a fair bit and was impressed with him last time out.that piece of form is the best chase form on offer here in my opinion should have no issues with conditions and like the fact muirhead is holding price.

sunday

Poor day yesterday will look back at some point 4 selections today to keep me busy and possible of another update later for the irish card.

300hunt fighting chance 1/2pt e/w 12/1 365 chand james bog
plenty of doubts about a few here,fighting Chance ran up a sequence of wins last season before running no race at cheltenham has gone ok fresh before and looks overpriced.

405hunt three boars 1/2pt e/w 20/1 tote pp bog
amuse me should win if running same race as last week but towecester form is risky to translate
sometimes and at odds on you have to take on.have three boars next best on my ratings he also looks to be slowly improving no issues with conditions should go well

205carl pyrachanta 1/2p e/w 11/1 coral bog 10/1 gen
needs soft ground showed up well on debut run this season looks weighted to win of this mark

240 race to watch every horse has potential to improve and I would not rule any out including the outsider door boy who at the price prices would be my choice

310 minister shadow 1/2pt e/w 28/1 coral bog 25/1 fred james pp
gentle ranger is obviously respected as is the likely national type palace mereno however both are to short.
the selection is generally exposed but is closely weighted with bay cherry 2nd fav and has no issue with conditions obviously fitness may be an issue but price is worth the risk.

Saturday 30 October 2010

Saturday

nice winner yesterday hopefully anyone that backed it got on early as I would not hav been confident
backing a horse like that at 7/2.
Todays looks a good days racing as you expect for saturdays and im pleased to see the charlie hall being a decent race
as I think the last couple of years its lost a little appeal and I have my first max bet of the season.
150 ascot minneapolis 1/2pt e/w 20/1
very competetive race this but Im taking a chance with a horse who does not look
badly weighted on his best form and looks like he is slowly improving carries his head a bit high
but he seems a consistent type and I like the booking of timmy murphy.
225 ascot id be against against radium here I like pause and clause nice individual,
but othermix is clear pick on last years form 5/1 would be the pice id want to get interestd in though

340 ascot like take the breeze now rain has not 5/1 to one though now and thats to short for a race of this nature
if carruthers runs he would still be respected and possol can go well if in the mood.
415 ascot alsadaa 1/2pt e/w 20/1 365 fred bog
likes it round ascot no issues with conditions goes well fresh
price to big front 2 in market obviously the dangers
450 oiseau de nuit 1 1/2pt e/w 9/2 365 fred bog
Loved the way this horse travelled lto untill weakining close home on my ratings I have this well clear today your the top and sizing africa
obviously have the potential here to improve but I much prefer form in the book.
The e/w part of the bet for me is solely about trying to protect stakes at my large level if you prefer you can allways go win only and probably trade off on this one if you prefer.

250 weth fair along would be the selection record this time of year excellent,you just dont know what form he is going to be retuning in thouh and at 4/1 the reward is not enough.

325 weth 3/4pt e/w calgary bay 12/1 lad 365 fred
deep purple needs to run better than last year to win possibly better over shorter
knockara beau improved during last season but this is a test for a second season chaser first time up.ollie magern generally form not as good as last couple of years.nacarat needs kempton,the tother one needs a stiffe test thats rythmn outclassed.Which leaves me with barbers shop to short and my old friend calgary bay.He put up his career best performance in similar conditions to these at doncaster last year,clearly needed his first run this season and giving weight to barbers shop may be an issue but at these prices im happy to take the risk.
 

Friday 29 October 2010

Friday

No joy yesterday with the first selection running no race after a couple of jumping errors ready or not was a bit keen i'n his reappearance but showed up nicely for a long way until tiring on the home straight I think it will be money borrowed with that one.tell Massini could only do what was asked of him really and it I don't understand sometimes what people expect to see from these high class types when they go chasing. Made i'n time jumping well on his hurdles debut and is a lovely long term prospect.2 bets today do like be my light as well 420 uttox but 4/1 is a poor price for a horse who I would be backing mainly for his potential.

Uttox

310 babilu 1/2pt each way  7/1 365 Fred bog
Can't see many enjoying these conditions babilu is a bit of a character but he's weighted to win and I expect him to go close
 quam  celerine looks the danger

430weth 1/2pt each way western gale 12/1 Fred 11/1 365 bog

Solid form for this grade dropped generally consistent top has dropped A few more pounds since last run and cones out top on my ratings is exposed but at price worth a shot

Running total for October +13.75

Thursday 28 October 2010

Thursday update

One more bet to add write up brief today sorry.

330 font 1/2pt each way ready or not 9/1 hills bog sporting bet

Taking a chance on him being ready first time up after a break but that is my only concern and the odds are acceptable for the risk i'n my eyes.I have this horse clear on my ratings then the capable Nathan Sweeney takes more weight of his back. He should have no issue with conditions.

320 Michigan disop 3/4 pt ew

Was on this one lto where I clearly read this wrong got caught up with the horses form around bangor.he was never really put into the race and with Ian popham back on board and the money down it clearly looks as if tidays the day.

One other horse to note today's is glenns boy i'n the last at Stratford his future will be over staying distances but he did show up ok last time so say he might run better than his odds suggest

Thursday

Another update i'n around an hour but horse I like being backed off the boards and I want 5/1 +

3/4pt each way Michigan disop 320 Stratford 13/2 chandler 6/1 Fred Boyle and a few more

Wednesday 27 October 2010

Wednesday

Few handicaps at haydock today to have a look at and found the one selection.
In the 325 barwell bridge could run a better race than last time now stepped up in trip and down in grade.The next I like oscar honey on his old form but he is just to hit and miss to be confident about.Catch Bob 435 surely has a race or 2 in him this season I get the feeling though that it maybe another day.

Looking at the 250 then desperate dex has respectable form but not form that says he should be 3/1 he is the main danger to my selection as I think a large majority of these like genuine quick ground.Master somerville does not want it to soft either but I think it should about be OK for him here,has a good record fresh and I defiantly think he can still win of this mark.He has won his 3 out the last 4 races at this grade and finishing 3rd in the other and I expect him to go very close today.

At punchestown it will be interesting to see how noble prince gets on in the novice chase as he is a horse of some potential still over longer distances.

250 haydock 1/2pt e/w master somerville 7/1 gen is weak so I would take bog

Tuesday 26 October 2010

Tuesday

One horse caught my eye today and that was chrysander i'n the 310.the fav has to be taken on i'n this yes he's improving but he has had plenty racing recently and is just to short i'n what looks a pretty competitive race.chrysander clearly has the ability to win of hi current mark judging by his return race over hurdles recently where he showed up well for a good way at the 8/1 which was available this morning i'n a couple of places this was going to be a bet but this has been well supported since and it would be interesting to know if this is connections money or just a service.however it's now generally 6/1 and at that price I have to swerve it as I'm unsure about the jockey and whether this is the horses ideal trip around a sharp track.

No bet

Monday 25 October 2010

Sundays reflections

Sunday proved a real frustrating day .
Superius got far to worked up and I've probably read this one wrong.fairoak lad never travelled or jumped and did not show his true form a change of tactics worked on the winner which I thought my horse held just to make things worse.racing demon ran a good race but the winner returned to form without warning.charminster showed plenty of promise and looks i'n need of a trip hopefully the head carriage was just signs of inexperience they seemed to go a decent clip for a bumper and it looked like an ok race.iona days ran better than his finishing posistion suggested whilst I'm not sure what to make of the tizzard horse yet and it will be interesting to see what they do with him next I really want him to settle though.tramantano did not run upto his level like a few others i'n that race and the winner will get hit for that and I'd want to oppose next time.cool friend won a non event really and hopefully won't get touched by the handicapper to much whilst lami joined i'n on a good day for jp.my biggest frustration of the day had to be peak raider though as this horse clearly should have won.I'm not the biggest fan of Paul carberry and I don't want to complain about jockeys to much but up untill the straight he gave this a typical patient ride and got the horse jumping well but I'm sure that he thought he had the race i'n the bag and then expected his horse to quicken like a sprinter In the straight.overall a poor day on the selection front but I'm still happy with how things are going at the moment so let's hope we can find a winner or two this week.

Settled racing demon at 10/1 as don't think the 11s was available for to long

Running total +17.25pts

Sunday 24 October 2010

Lazy Sunday - No chance

Was getting worried a little bit yesterday when 2 horses I dropped as bets yesterday both won at decent odds and then the first selection failed to run his race for whatever reason but thankfully we was ok when any given day won comfortably at a nice price to keep things going well for this month.
Plenty of interesting action on Sunday and  I probably could have put a few more points out today.the horses that made the shortlist are discussed race by race.Ive looked at each race again this morning and its important who look at every race on a individual bases.lets hope Ive made the right calls.

The first race at aintree on Sunday lets us get a chance to see the latest well regarded french juvenile from the Alan king stable if all the comments are to go by this one has won already but things are rarely that straightforward. In the second I do like cool friend who comes here off the back of finishing 2nd for
her last 5 runs.I get the feeling though that if wishful thinking jumps round then she is going to have to settle for that position again.I do however think this mare has a handicap in her this season probably over slightly further.
Cue card last years cheltenham bumper winner runs for the first time over hurdles and it will be interesting to see how he goes stepped up in trip as no doubt he has an engine.He does take a keen hold in his races and I would be slightly concerned im sure the tizzards who do so well with there horses have thought long and hard about these things though.Bottman showed a nice attitude when winning his bumper last season and it would not surprise me to see him run well at a price (now runs at wincanton and is a short price to win there).It was a poor race in which iona days fell lto and he will need to improve again he is thought off as a nice long term prospect.In the bumper keep an eye on a good run from charminster who is well regarded and his stable don't tend do overate there horses he is priced up at around 7/1 this morning which is fair but I really cant be putting horses up in these races at the moment.
At galway it would not surprise me to see lami run well despite being none more as a long distance chaser and probably needing this outing he is priced up at 10/1 which again is a more than fair price but its difficult to see him winning at the same time.

410 galway No bet
I want to take final approach on here as its the price he is due to connections and potential.The 2 id be interested in are macidoni and lend a hand son.My preference is for the latter horse who would have run a well handicapped horse closer lto if reciving a better ride.This was an improve effort and I'm not sure if that was due to the very fast ground that day so with that concern I'm willing to leave this one at the current price.

445 gal head the posse
I have this one well clear on ratings compared to his main opponent realth dubh who again is another one priced up on connections and potential.Both horses probably want further but I do think head of the posse showed a real liking to fences lto and has the best hurdles form to go with that.Anything odds against for me is a decent price.

515 gal peak raider
When I was looking at this race yesterday my initial comment of the RP forecast of 11/4 was no chance will that be available come the morning so im shocked off the 3/1.On his reappearance run this season he holds all the opposition here and the horse that day looked in need of the race and more chasing experience I think we are getting a decent price about a horse who has the best form in the race at these weights and has the potential to do a lot more this season.splurge looks  like he is being strongly supported and connections obviously fancy this to go well but this needs to improve in my eyes on that he has shown so far.

430 wex No bet
changing course is a horse that I think has a handicap in him at the moment but in looking at the race again im concerned he is going to be taken on early by bachelor affair which may not suit.There is plenty others in this with potential most notably clarkey and at the prices im willing to leave this one now but it would not surprise me if a few winners came from this race.

320 aintree racing demon
May look a odd choice this as as he is pretty short for a horse that has not won in 3 years but in my book I have this as favourite as to me he is just top on my ratings, should have no issues with conditions and if anything this 3 mile will suit more than a stiff 2 1/2mile race.The horse goes well fresh and it was nice to see the stable have a winner yesterday even if it meant missing a winner myself.Solway sam won a race on this course lto but i think he may be flattered by the ap ride that day.Predictive is going chasing and I'm hoping this is to put him right for that.cross kennonup to his true form over cd on his last run but that was on the back of a hard season and despite that being a concern he would rank the main danger and looks strongly fancied however the value is clearly with the selection.

355 Aintree tramantano
Tramantano has won this the last two years and I will have no doubt he has been trained for this race again,the horse does not hold his form as well these days but that lets him race off a lower mark than last years win today.conditions are not an issue and even on some of his worst runs last year he is still the
form pick.ockey de neulliac has plenty of potential but little in the book to warrant the price he is,awesome george looks held as does stagecoach pearl and I think most trouble may come from folk tune who's stable are in good form and ran his best chase run over this course when 2nd to five dream he comes here fit from the flat and could run better than his odds suggest.

220 wincanton superius
Robain is hard to asses in this race an it would not surprise me to see improved form on a decent surface first time up in this handicap but emma lavelle has brought superius along quietly this season.He won a novice race over cd last season and I think the fitting of first time blinkers is a positive here even if it just makes him hurdle a little more fluently even On my ratings a reproduction of last time is enough to take this and this slightly easier test will suit.

255 wincanton fairoak lad
Plenty here I want to take on for vaious reasons.Not a fan of gullible gordons chracter and connections already said he is best fresh I also think he is held by fairoak lad on last years novice chase run round this course.Templer to me does not like winning  and simply smashing looked more impressive than he was when winning a poor race for the grade at startford last time against him.Cant have the 3 outsiders which leaves the first time visored ballyvesesy who may find a bit more improvement now but does need to at the same time in this grade.Im left with fairoak lad who is 3 from 3 at the course showed plenty promise last time out has perfect conditions and the very talented giles hawkins claiming 5lbs on board.This has been well supported this morning but think it would have been unfair to post early at 5/1 with one bookmaker im not concerned about the 7/2 as I had this priced up at ahorter than this still.

Todays bets are then as follows :-

220 wincanton superius,355 Aintree Tramantano,445 gal head of the posse
3 x 1/2pt win doubles placed the bet with 365 who are 5/2 - 2/1 - 7/4

320 aintree 1/2pt e/w racing  11/1 coral bog 10/1 gen
255 wincanton 2pt win Fairoak lad 7/2 gen now but is still being supported
515 galway 2pt win peak raider 3/1 365 bog

Running total for October +22pts

Saturday 23 October 2010

Saturday

Plenty of interesting runners today but I think its important not to get to carried away especially as there is concerns about whta the ground will ride like
few thoughts about the aintree wouldnt want to be mille cheif untill with so many doubts about him but apart from that i do think the market has it right with
westlin winds and nearby being next best so no real angle.My pick in roan chase would be poquelin as i think he is more likely to un his race than tartak who is clear on ratings
monets garden would be next best and the one I would be against is albertas run who I have plenty time for but any rain will not suit.imsingingtheblues on a flat track could also be in the mix so just far to tough.
 
2 bets then
 
400ain lost glory 7/1 gen 1/2pt each way
 
showed potential last season in novice races and i tjink connection want to take advantage of his novice status still

 
410chep any given day 1/2pt each way 9/1 gen
 
front 2 in the betting here are there due to connections and potential so ahve to take any given day showed up well on  his reapperance this year the drop back in trip round here
will not be an issue and think this one has a decent race in him off this mark

Thursday 21 October 2010

Thursday

Brief today as short on time had a good look at the racing though and 2 selections at Carlisle the one should outclass it's rivals and had this around evens and the other a bit mire risky but showed good form last year for this level and back on decent ground should go ok if straight first time.
325 tara royal 1 1/2pt win 5/2 sj c bog
355 papa caruso 1/2 pt each way 16/1 sj bog and a couple more


 

Wednesday 20 October 2010

wednesday at worcester

Fontwell looks a poor card so just concentrated on Worcester with the 1 selection.

420 art man 1/2pt e/w 14/1 365 coral bog

315 Worcester
Will be very disappointed if the newcomer to chasing bob n you and the giant bolster cant make an impression in this both horses looked like they would always make better chasers,I would not want to be on ballydub again here.

420 spot the ball is likely to show improved form now in  a handicap but you just have to oppose these types,I'm not keen on kilvergan boy either as he is up 7lbs today and also has lost the 5lb claimer he had last time,kilmore west likely to handle these conditions better than last time and pocket two good course form are respected but I'm willing to Take a chance with art man staying the trip here but we are getting decent odds for the risk.The selection has not been a natural to hurdles but despite this has shown
a respectable level of form for this grade, he ran an OK race lto despite being hampered badly.

455 competitive handicap I want to take on another trump who I only have in front of the top one on my ratings and looks to be priced up on connections rather than what he has shown I'm slightly concerned about sir ian repeating his run last time out so that takes the front two out of the betting.However from there I have very little between the other 4 and with all priced similar and justthe 7 runners I have to swerve the race.


Jons gift yesterdays selection was placed so no harm done there.I don't think celestial halo did much wrong yesterday and will be interesting to see where connections go next whilst dare me proved very little however his liking for a decent surface will make him interesting for the spring festivals.

Running total +18.87

Tuesday 19 October 2010

Mail list

The mail list should now be set up for thoose who have requested if u don't receive Wednesdays email or wish to be added still then drop me an email.

Exeter on Tuesday

410 exeter johns gift 1/2pt e/w 8/1 365 sj bog
 
Will be interesting to watch the novice races today with plenty of the big yards represented.The race that interest me from a betting view though is the 410.russian epic obviously has potential in this but is priced up accordingly and just sets the race up nicely,ill be interested to see how millers dawn gets on this season as I know this horse has had treatment on sore legs over the summer and im sure connections think he is much better than he has shown so far and I would not be suprised if he uns well but the stables runners all look to be a bit short on work.johns gift showed more than ehough in novice hurdles last season to say he can be competetive off this mark, he is also won first time out last season and with conditions looking uitable im hoping for a good run.

Monday 18 October 2010

No bet monday

Nothing catches the eye at plumpton today so no bet.hopefully should be something for exeter on Tuesday which looks a ok card.

Sunday 17 October 2010

Weekend thoughts

Friday was the first real disappointing day since the blog started with just the one placed horse.Calgary bay the main selection on the day clearly needed the race and I'm still off the belief on his day he has a decent race in him again this season.swing bill ran respectably but just wasn't good enough in the end expect he may hit his level soon and probably wont be one to follow now.Scene two however may have small race in him if he can improve his hurdling a little more with racing.

On saturday I was impressed with how aiteen thirtythree won his race.The horse looks like he is crying out for fences and jumps very nicely,he seems to have grown up a bit over the summer and loos one to keep an eye on for the longterm.
2 i would be more interested in for the short term are oiseau de nuit and general ting who either due to lack of a recent run or being stepped up in trip just failed to see out there races both ran very similar races travelling very nicely before fading quickly and of there current marks have races in them.

Today was a bit frustrating with the mention winning and also heez  a cracker finally showing a little of his true potential in a weak novice hurdle for kempton the latter I had noted for a handicap or two this year so hopefully his will not effect his mark to much.General ting ran a solid race but was  just got caught out by a well handicapped tony martin type who was well backed all day.


Running total for October now +18.37 update in morning for plumpton

One i'n ireland

3rd was best we could manage yesterday at least the place made the day a little profitable.
Kempton looks tricky today so as much as it looks interesting to watch I'm swerving the card.
I did like lancetto at naas but odds looked to tight this morning and it's been backed early.so just the on bet today.
355cork bachelor affair 1/2pt ew I've taken 14/1 bog with ladbrokes think 16s is available
This looks held on his last run but the horse hated the ground that day and got taken on early.before then he looked to be progressing well ad at the prices I'm willing to give him chance back on this ground and i'n a small field

Saturday 16 October 2010

Saturdays bets

No joy yesterday will try and put some thoughts up about the wkends action at some point.
Not really a betting card today for me I'll have a go i'n the handicaps though

240 oiseau de nuit 1/2pt ew 20/1 365 bog
425 son of flicka 1/2pt ew 33/1 gen
General ting 1/2pt ew 14/1 gen

Friday 15 October 2010

Fridays Bets

245 gee dee den 1pt win 13/2 wh pp bog 
Similar rated on hurdles form best chase form good jumper
505 swing bill 1/2pt each way 4 places 8/1 365 bog gen that price
Down i'n grade running consistent handle conditions
540 scene two 8/1 1/2pt e/w 365 and a couple more but be quick on this one 
2 mile decent ground stiff finish may suit this one not exposed as looks stable does well at this meeting few dark ones so don't take to short
 

Thursday 14 October 2010

Early bet for friday

The home of national hunt racing holds it first meeting tomorrow.nothing beats Cheltenham and can't wait to be there again this weekend.as I'll be keeping the blog updated using my phone things will be brief on the anaylsis.

355 chelt Calgary bay 1pt each way 7/1 365 bog
Pretty shocked that a horse of this class ha been priced up so big tonight.Ever since I watched this horse as a novice jump round Cheltenham with ap on board he's had my attention.yes he's got top weight here but when you compare
him to ouzbeck who is also on the same Mark then that says to me his is still fairly treated.the horse travelled well for a long time i'n te gold cup untill his stamina ran out and I could still see him competing at the top level this season with conditions i'n his favour.to my eyes 3mile on decent ground is what this horse wants at the moment.only concern has to be he does to much early and his trainer has left a bit to work on but I'm willing to take the risk at this price.

No bet Thursday

Another winner yesterday keeps the profit going in the right direction.
Profit for the month is +19.55pts now from 18pts staked.
Punchestown sees the return of sizing europe and it will be interesting to see how he gets on over the extended trip and loosen my load is a horse of some potential this year and expect him to rank very highly this season.
Cant get excited about anything at wincanton so nothing for me today.

Wednesday 13 October 2010

wednesday

2 nice winners yesterday an its always nice when things work out like that.
Thanks for the comments nice to know a few are taking an interest in the blog
at this early stage and lets hope this is just the start of things to come.

weth
325 ahmedy 1/2pt e/w 6/1 365 bog and gen that price with most firms
repeat the top one here who I was on last time and I know connections expect this to finish
the season on a lot higher mark but ahmedy showed form off a similar nature last season
yet receives plenty of weight here,fit from the flat stable in good form,no problem
with conditions and just looks the better value.
355 drever route 1pt win 4/1 pp bog also available with a few more.
interesting timmy murphy picking up a few rides for wylie and his riding style
suits this horse.has always had plenty of potential and i think 2 1/2 mile on decent ground
round a sharp track will suit.

few other quick thought expect clarkey to go close at punch improving type but to short
similar comments to 455uttox kilkenny all star who looks on a lenient mark in a poor race
also keep an eye on hen knights pair both ex costello horses the first looks out n out staying chaser
whilst I could see the bumper horse running much better than his odds but stable is
out of form still.345 glenns boy 525 high kite

Tuesday 12 October 2010

Two for Tuesday

220 iceman george  8/1 1/2pt e/w sj bog and with a few others
ran 2 respectable races over course last season
recent run on flat should put the edge on fitness and expect novice status was kept back for this season. Should go close i'n a poor event.
250 fidelis 7/1 1/2pt e/w 365 bog
Only the one run over fences last year when running creditably,actually think new trip will suit
likes decent ground,can defiantly win a race of this mark have him clear on my own ratings
gone well fresh before and think first time out maybe time to catch him.
 

Monday 11 October 2010

No Action Monday

No jumps racing on Monday so next possibility of  a bet will be Huntingdon on Tuesday.The racing should slowly start to build up pace now over the next few weeks and Cheltenham kicks off its season this coming wkend.Small profit over the last couple of days which leaves the running total for the month at +7.55pts.

Sunday 10 October 2010

Sundays Selections

1 winner and one placed selection keeps the profit going for this month.

Limerick looks a good card today like cornas and sonamix but both to short really.3 selections anyway.

430ffos rio gael 1/2pt e/w 6/1 boyle sports bog bigger is available in place
Disappointed that marc aurele has come out the race as opposing him was the first angle into this race.selection has decent form for this level in novice hurdles and handles these conditions well.looks a consistent type who should run his race.

505ffos treasury counsel 1/2pt e/w 20/1 ladbrokes bog again bigger available in places.
Taking a big chance here really do like the favourite but far to short for this grade.This horse has 2 ways off running and can easily see him jumping badly and dropping out the back but the step up in trip may help and has bits of form to see him win this easily off this mark.

435lim 1/2pt e/w paddy pub 10/1 bog ladbrokes 9/1 gen
have to take dancing tornado on at the prices,The selections to have been aimed for this race and a year wiser than last year than when finishing 4th should see him thereabouts.





Saturday 9 October 2010

The racing picks up pace

Running late today sorry jumps action really starts today plenty of action for me today.

325 chep 1 1/2pt win balthazar king 7/2 gen bog
nicholls horse looks obvious one for this season but the ground is a big worry for me
and I'm happy to oppose with a race fit horse that handles these conditions well

400 chep 3/4pt e/w barwell bridge 6/1 gen bog
olofif far to short yes has scope but selection beat him at chelt off levels,
escortman looks a bigger danger but connections don't seem confident really,
selection has just as much scope to improve a others and think the race
could be set up for him if they go a decent gallop

435 chep 1/2pt e/w tin pot man 10/1 gen 11/1 in a couple of places
thinks looks competitive if I'm honest and i may get caught out taking on
a couple of chasers with lenient hurdle marks,The 2 I was interested in was winsley hill and tin pot man
winsley hill is  a mare in form and likely to make this  a true test from the front but im worried a bit
the trip being to sharp and for that reason im with the lightly raced tin pot man
who showed plenty as a novice and looks likely to be suited by this tip

510 chep 1/2pt e/w mount oscar 16/1 gen bog
gullible gordon is obviously well fancied and sure go close but just looks far to short
on what he has shown,mount oscar goes well fresh had some decent form last season and
i think 3mile on decent surface may just be ok for him so at the prices looks plenty value

440 bangor 1/2pt e/w michigan disop 14/1 365 bog 16/1 wills
Think ballydub has a race in him this year but far to short as this may not be
a stiffer enough test,this race seems to lack strength and even though im
worried about the class angle here I think at the prices the selection has
plenty in his favour likes course going ok ground no issues

Friday 8 October 2010

A blank Friday

2 placed horses yesterday 1 beaten by a neck,sure over the season my luck will even out with those calls.
No real opportunities at carlisle today the novice events look ok for future reference but very little else with plenty horses coming back from long lay offs for there season reappearances.


October P/L  +6.2

Thursday 7 October 2010

Thursday

2 selections today bit short on time so just brief thoughts.
335 exeter vamizi 1/2pt each way 9/1 bog power james fred
Won over c&d last year as a novice goes ok fresh clear on my ratings

420 worc edgefour 1/2pt each way 8/1 gen bog
have this has fav in my book 2nd of similar mark last year
comes here in good form lots dont like horses of this profile which means they can end up value.

Wednesday 6 October 2010

Watching Wednesday

Takes something very interesting to get me involved at towcester so apart from the novice chase and the likely hood of the barnett curly horse being fancied not much interest.the Ludlow card looks ok but been a little overnight rain and with more forecast it makes things a bit more tough to read.miss overdrive to me is the bet horse i'n her race but I'm not a fan off mares races and trainer not hard a winner or good time ok not many runners an I'm i'n a unkown about the jockey so happy to pass at price.tritonville lodge surely has a race I. Him but this looks tough little event and I'm sure he want genuine top of the ground.if he was at his forecast price I may have taken the risk but again price just looks to tight.next update i'n morning.

Monday 4 October 2010

Tuesday

No bet the 1 card i'n Ireland looks full of big fields and competitive action.2 cards on Wednesday so hope for something then.

Sunday 3 October 2010

No bets

Today's selection now a non runner and can't really get the prices I want on 2 other horses so just to confirm no bets now today will update next Tuesday.

Rain rain rain

Today looks tough Plenty of decent ground horses on soft ground and plenty horse coming back from lay offs.I may update again around 3 with something for the later races but at the moment just the 1 selection i'n Ireland.
420 tip farrigdon 1pt win 7/2 gen bog
Looks a nice novice chase glenstall abbey respected but have that one priced up bigger i'n by book than the selection who comes here off the back of an impressive performance last time handles the forecast soft ground well and looks sure to run a good race

Saturday 2 October 2010

Bookies not playing the game

Prices seem a bit tight on the 2 horses I like today and with no need to rush into bets this time off year I've decided to pull the single bets and just play with a small each way double.
Bet is 1/2pt each way double I think 10/3 & 11/2 with pp bog is best odds at moment similar available with 365.

255 iona days
Taking a little bit of a chance with this one as the yard can be extremely difficult to read but this horse defiantly has the potential to be a class above these today.
ex costello horse who showed plenty promise on debut over course in bumper last year, showed a bit on novice hurdle debut over trip which will be much to short in time.
well related to likes of tresor de mai and edredon bleu and no doubt will make up to a decent chaser at some point. sure any further rain will suit and if ready should go close.
440 buds dilemma
Think market has this one wrong and I would be happy taking the top 2 on here.hobbs dream has a shown form to be able to take a race like this but first sfter a break and best
form at plumpton so preference is for buds dilemma showed much more promise 4 days ago at sedgfield,this trip should suit looking at that race and looks the value option in what looks a race that will not take much winning.
Nice easy winner yesterday at a decent price gets the month of to a nice start.
running total for october +6.5pts

Friday 1 October 2010

2 at hexham

Winner yesterday keeps the nice start going.concerned about what ground is going to be like today but I have focussed around there being a bit of cut i'n it.
350 overquest 1/2pt each way 10/1 Fred hills bog
Won a point on soft ground showed bits of promise i'n novice chases jumping slight concern 

500 panthers run 1pt win 4/1 coral 365 Boyle bog
Enjoys it round here goes well fresh can easily win of this Mark goes well for jockey