Sunday 24 October 2010

Lazy Sunday - No chance

Was getting worried a little bit yesterday when 2 horses I dropped as bets yesterday both won at decent odds and then the first selection failed to run his race for whatever reason but thankfully we was ok when any given day won comfortably at a nice price to keep things going well for this month.
Plenty of interesting action on Sunday and  I probably could have put a few more points out today.the horses that made the shortlist are discussed race by race.Ive looked at each race again this morning and its important who look at every race on a individual bases.lets hope Ive made the right calls.

The first race at aintree on Sunday lets us get a chance to see the latest well regarded french juvenile from the Alan king stable if all the comments are to go by this one has won already but things are rarely that straightforward. In the second I do like cool friend who comes here off the back of finishing 2nd for
her last 5 runs.I get the feeling though that if wishful thinking jumps round then she is going to have to settle for that position again.I do however think this mare has a handicap in her this season probably over slightly further.
Cue card last years cheltenham bumper winner runs for the first time over hurdles and it will be interesting to see how he goes stepped up in trip as no doubt he has an engine.He does take a keen hold in his races and I would be slightly concerned im sure the tizzards who do so well with there horses have thought long and hard about these things though.Bottman showed a nice attitude when winning his bumper last season and it would not surprise me to see him run well at a price (now runs at wincanton and is a short price to win there).It was a poor race in which iona days fell lto and he will need to improve again he is thought off as a nice long term prospect.In the bumper keep an eye on a good run from charminster who is well regarded and his stable don't tend do overate there horses he is priced up at around 7/1 this morning which is fair but I really cant be putting horses up in these races at the moment.
At galway it would not surprise me to see lami run well despite being none more as a long distance chaser and probably needing this outing he is priced up at 10/1 which again is a more than fair price but its difficult to see him winning at the same time.

410 galway No bet
I want to take final approach on here as its the price he is due to connections and potential.The 2 id be interested in are macidoni and lend a hand son.My preference is for the latter horse who would have run a well handicapped horse closer lto if reciving a better ride.This was an improve effort and I'm not sure if that was due to the very fast ground that day so with that concern I'm willing to leave this one at the current price.

445 gal head the posse
I have this one well clear on ratings compared to his main opponent realth dubh who again is another one priced up on connections and potential.Both horses probably want further but I do think head of the posse showed a real liking to fences lto and has the best hurdles form to go with that.Anything odds against for me is a decent price.

515 gal peak raider
When I was looking at this race yesterday my initial comment of the RP forecast of 11/4 was no chance will that be available come the morning so im shocked off the 3/1.On his reappearance run this season he holds all the opposition here and the horse that day looked in need of the race and more chasing experience I think we are getting a decent price about a horse who has the best form in the race at these weights and has the potential to do a lot more this season.splurge looks  like he is being strongly supported and connections obviously fancy this to go well but this needs to improve in my eyes on that he has shown so far.

430 wex No bet
changing course is a horse that I think has a handicap in him at the moment but in looking at the race again im concerned he is going to be taken on early by bachelor affair which may not suit.There is plenty others in this with potential most notably clarkey and at the prices im willing to leave this one now but it would not surprise me if a few winners came from this race.

320 aintree racing demon
May look a odd choice this as as he is pretty short for a horse that has not won in 3 years but in my book I have this as favourite as to me he is just top on my ratings, should have no issues with conditions and if anything this 3 mile will suit more than a stiff 2 1/2mile race.The horse goes well fresh and it was nice to see the stable have a winner yesterday even if it meant missing a winner myself.Solway sam won a race on this course lto but i think he may be flattered by the ap ride that day.Predictive is going chasing and I'm hoping this is to put him right for that.cross kennonup to his true form over cd on his last run but that was on the back of a hard season and despite that being a concern he would rank the main danger and looks strongly fancied however the value is clearly with the selection.

355 Aintree tramantano
Tramantano has won this the last two years and I will have no doubt he has been trained for this race again,the horse does not hold his form as well these days but that lets him race off a lower mark than last years win today.conditions are not an issue and even on some of his worst runs last year he is still the
form pick.ockey de neulliac has plenty of potential but little in the book to warrant the price he is,awesome george looks held as does stagecoach pearl and I think most trouble may come from folk tune who's stable are in good form and ran his best chase run over this course when 2nd to five dream he comes here fit from the flat and could run better than his odds suggest.

220 wincanton superius
Robain is hard to asses in this race an it would not surprise me to see improved form on a decent surface first time up in this handicap but emma lavelle has brought superius along quietly this season.He won a novice race over cd last season and I think the fitting of first time blinkers is a positive here even if it just makes him hurdle a little more fluently even On my ratings a reproduction of last time is enough to take this and this slightly easier test will suit.

255 wincanton fairoak lad
Plenty here I want to take on for vaious reasons.Not a fan of gullible gordons chracter and connections already said he is best fresh I also think he is held by fairoak lad on last years novice chase run round this course.Templer to me does not like winning  and simply smashing looked more impressive than he was when winning a poor race for the grade at startford last time against him.Cant have the 3 outsiders which leaves the first time visored ballyvesesy who may find a bit more improvement now but does need to at the same time in this grade.Im left with fairoak lad who is 3 from 3 at the course showed plenty promise last time out has perfect conditions and the very talented giles hawkins claiming 5lbs on board.This has been well supported this morning but think it would have been unfair to post early at 5/1 with one bookmaker im not concerned about the 7/2 as I had this priced up at ahorter than this still.

Todays bets are then as follows :-

220 wincanton superius,355 Aintree Tramantano,445 gal head of the posse
3 x 1/2pt win doubles placed the bet with 365 who are 5/2 - 2/1 - 7/4

320 aintree 1/2pt e/w racing  11/1 coral bog 10/1 gen
255 wincanton 2pt win Fairoak lad 7/2 gen now but is still being supported
515 galway 2pt win peak raider 3/1 365 bog

Running total for October +22pts

1 comment:

  1. Very unlucky pal, Racing Demon ran a blinder and hit a handicap blot, Peak Raider was beat by a gnats cock hair. Keep up the good work, you know what you are doing.

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