Thursday 31 March 2011

Thursday

Been busy this morning since posting the advised selection on the snail and I hope a few took notice as this has now been a well supported into 5/1 and you could easily be sitting there with a nice free bet now.I expect him to run a big race today and he would be my stongest selection along with second brook who I want to get some money rolling onto in some way.I Like plenty today the issue ive had as always is prices though ive missed a couple who are blue all over oddschecker which is frustrating but the way it goes,I also like a couple on the flat and im confident of a decent day.


Advised Selections

2.35 ludlow shannons firth 1/4pt each way 20/1 vc bog

3.05 Ludlow Thumbs up 11/4 1pt win bet365 bog

3.35 ludlow havingotascoobydoo 9/4
4.35 ludlow second brook 9/2

1/2pt each way double bet365 bog

3.35 ludlow havingotascoobydoo 9/4
4.35 ludlow second brook 9/2
5.55 Cork raz de maree 3/1

1/4pt each way treble bet365 bog

3.50 leicester formulation 4/1
5.20 leicester Standpoint 13/2

1/2pt each way double bet 365g bog

Ludlow

2.35
Seren cwmtudu looks the likely winner if you reproduces the form she showed went winning 2 runs ago that form is solid with the 2nd winning since and she should have no issues with conditions today.Shannons firth is the only other one id be interested in she showed enough ability in 2 bumper runs to suggest she can be involved here, comes back from a fair lay off but if ready she could be the one and at decent odds I think is worth a small bet.

3.05
I think there is a good chance here that thumbs up can reverse the form with fahrisee here.Hopefully the cheek pieces will just keep him a little more interested mid race, back on a decent surface which I think is more to his liking and also not giving 7lbs today im hopeful of a good run.The price is borderline for me and I would not want shorter than 5/2

3.35
Interesting handicap would be happy taking mad moose on here put up a career best run last time but this is second run after a break and so many just don’t seem to run 2 races the same these days. There are plenty here you could give some chance to tom o tara has been running consistently this season he is more exposed than most of these and he is still on a higher mark than he has won off however I’ve been waiting for connections to step him up in trip on decent ground round a track like Ludlow and I can easily see him going well but just finding one to good I expect. Silver roque is another with claims showed promise upped in trip and first time in a handicap lto, his jockey went to early that day and whilst he still probably would not have won that was promising enough to suggest he can go well of his current mark.Kasbadali is interesting first time in a handicap with the blinkers now also applied he has hit flat spots during his races especially here 2 runs ago and if they help him travel better I can see him running a big race.Havingotascoobydoo is still the one to beat for me though, I highlighted this horse when he won over this cd 2 runs ago in comfortable fashion he has since ran respectably at sandown and despite the higher mark now I’m sure he is still capable of winning more races for his shrewd yard.

4.05
Easy to take a few out here Azulada bay needs a stiffer test and back from a break,Russian epic needs to improve for chasing and this is a stiff ask on debut,tyup pompey and leamington lad are both badly out of form,restezen d armor im sure is flattered by his run last time and is a better horse over 2 miles not convinced of higher mark now. Shake the barley had an easier chance than this to win last time at is another im happy to take on.
cruchian is a little more interesting as he is on a fair mark but tends to make mistakes at key times during his races. Man from highworth could run well but his run lto is solid and but he does not win often and the 2 that are of most interest to me are the ewan Williams pair.Akarshan has to be respected as he is well treated if he has now got his jumping together and finally gets to race over his optimum conditions today. The snail is however the one I’m most interested in firstly forget lto as the trip was too far and he tried to chase a too fast a pace I expect connections knew this and was all part of the plan to get this horse back to a workable mark if you look at the run previously he showed he was coming back to himself bang there 3 out until a mistake cost him and his run flattered out. All his best form is round here and I’m expecting a decent showing today.

4.35
Modest affair I’d be willing to take the newcomers on though bahr nothing showed a bit more lto round here and could improve again for this grade however he is giving plenty of weight to second brook who himself has shown a similar level of ability on his 3 runs. Trainer tends to have a winner now and again round here and especially is interesting when dropping horses down in grade like this and looks the one to beat.

Cork
5.55
Big field but not many with chances I don’t think here, doctor deejay has it to prove over this trip for me and at short odds I’d be happy to take on and I can only think that a lack of opportunities has prevented him running over 2 ½ firstly.Powerstations is respected as his claiming jockey makes him competitive here as plenty now have to race from outside the handicap however one that just gets in at the bottom is raz de mare and he is of some interest todasy.Just beaten by a stable companion ravage dor lto when he probably did not see his race out as strongly now I know despite ravage dor not running well at the festival he is thought of being capable of winning more races and that form is decent. The drier ground should be ok and could go well with Bryan cooper who won on him the time before back on board and claiming an extra 5 today.3/1 is hardly value but I do expect him to win.

Well the first flat mentions did not run to a badly with 2 out the 3 rewarding e/w supporters. Most notably obviously being spirit of Coniston who was available at 50/1 just before the off. The racing moves onto Leicester today and its hardly inspiring stuff again. Hughie Morrison is a trainer I follow with great interest and he runs formulation in the 3.50 here.Jimmy fortune is an interesting booking only ride of the day and the horse has ran his best races after a short break previously on his best form he looks fairly treated and I think any rain will aid his chances as well. Standpoint 5.20 has only ever won a maiden but he was consistent last season of a slightly higher mark and he showed plenty of promise back from a break recently he should go well.

2 comments:

  1. I agree with you on THE SNAIL but I overlooked him on account of Maguire riding AZULADA BAY and I've gone for that one (see my blog). It will be an interesting race - just hope 1 of us has the winner! Forecast opportunity?

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  2. I don't think first 2 beaten and being pulled up was the forecast we was after.

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