Saturday 23 April 2011

Saturday

It really is a case of something for everyone today,with so much racing I think it’s more important than ever that you specialise on your strongest races that you feel most confident of success with.Ive hit a bit of a bad recently and whilst im confident things will come right in the end,Along with that blog viewings have fallen considerably and its made me look at how to continue moving things forward after the initial success with things. To use a racing term im probably best fresh and recently the whole process of taking the night out to look at the next days racing day in day out has affected things the last month or so, the write ups have been smaller as well due to time restraints and basically I think continuing as things are will not helium not going to be making drastic changes to the way I look at things but basically I’m only going to posting now when I’ve really got something to say about the days racing and when I’ve had the quality time to spend on the cards and hopefully this will help in bringing the blog results back into success.
Plenty I like about today racing hopefully I’ve made the right choices with selections id also put nobody off combining the ones ive left as mentions in some small mulitples as they have only been turned down due to prices.

Advised Selections

3.10 sandown meanus dandy fire and rain 1/2pt e/w both 365 5places bog 10/1 – 33/1
4.50 sandown dunno 1/2pt e/w 12/1 365 bog
2.20 haydock domincan monk 1/2pt e/w 10/1 gen bog
4.00 haydock toby jug 3/4pt e/w 7/1 vc bog
5.15 muss amno dancer 1/2pt e/w 5/1 gen bog

Sandown
130
I think the markets slightly out here and that’s probably mainly down to the Nicholls Walsh factor with sancuitaire not much actually puts me off him but it’s the strong credentials of clerks choice that has me thinking he should be the odds on fav here.CC is best on a fast surface and is well suited by small fields he looked a very classy horse in his races last autumn he would be my pick but at the same time I won’t be backing in such a small tactical event. I see market has now corrected overnight.
310
meanus dandy, aimiygale and fire and rain are the shortlist horses here for me. The front pair in baby run and Balthazar king are taken on mainly due to the fact I think they are both plenty short enough.The way things pan out may well suit meanus dandy who I expect will sit behind the decent pace likely and try to be produced when they have all taken each other on.He hits most of the key trends of recent winners and I can see him being the most suited to how things work out here conditions look ideal and as a previous course winner he commands plenty of respect for top connections.Aimygale is as tough as they come and from handicap point of view I think she has a race in her still off this mark however this is going to be a true test of a horses ability to travel at a fast pace and then stay at the end at which point I expect she may just struggle similar comments could also apply to fire and rain as he is another that tends to race prominently however the big difference here is price and I don’t think it wise to let a horse of this ability to be running at his current price unsupported.Desperealty needed the run on his first outing after a lay off if returning now to his best he should go well.
4.50 dunno is the kind of bet that picks itself for he may well find one better handicapped but the fact he has some much in his favour regarding conditions today has to make him worth a selection at a fair price.
Haydock
220
Drill sergant is a horse I know well and I’m sure he is worth taking on here off a trip that I think is not his best. I think there are risks about a few and the one I like most at a fair price is Dominican monk, he not had much racing recently but when he has been seen in a aw bumper race he still showed enough ability not ran over hurdles for a while but looks fairly treated when you look at his overall record. Can go well fresh and 2mile on decent ground will be no issues. Mark has slipped to a fair one and hopeful of a good run.


330 kelashore bay looks like he has a race in him off this mark I also think however that matuhi will find this easier than recently hard to split so no bet at the prices.
400
The big decision here is whether to give toby jug another chance as for me personally vie been with him on his last 2 selections the fact connections are keen to run again so soon suggests to me they think he is fit and well.Im sure he is well treated when he finally gets his act together again and the price looks ok again today.
435 decent little race here plenty of progressive types. It’s probably best to start with haventgotascoobydoo who I have tracked for a long time now he’s still capable of winning from this mark but I’m not convinced todays conditions will play to his strengths and I’m happy to take on. Black phantom would be the next best to my selection but there is a doubt about the ground and I also think there is a better handicapped horse in the shape of a bridge to far the fact his last performance came over the same conditions as today only add to the confidence of another success today. Its top price 4/1 this morning though so I have to leave now in such tricky little race.
510 I’m finding it hard to split 2 here in the shape of yeoman spirit and perfect reward. I think one of these will win but both have strong claims and are similar priced in the market so can’t really find an angle to get involved at the moment.
Kelso
645
althan khan looks to have ideal conditions here and he should find this a more suitable test than his last 2 runs round Stratford and hopefully that will bring out the extra bit of improvement for him to take this. Overall I don’t give many a chance here and rolecarr is probably the main danger.
Muss
5.15
Have a noted horse from the flat last season running here in the shape of amno dance showed up well in a similar event lto on his 2nd run for the shrewd barron team,looks to have plenty going for him today and should be involved.

1 comment:

  1. Hi TUHB

    I can totally relate to what you mean about the whole process of taking the night out to look at the next days racing day in day out affecting things.

    A Suggestion that I would make that has worked for me in the past is to cut right down on the number of Selections that you post on the site.

    I would suggest one or at the very most two selections. I found that doing that really forces you to focus and can as you put it bring you back Fresh.

    I also have an observation regarding your comment about the number of page views for your blog falling which is; that when a blog is producing great results from lots of selections the followers of the blog put up with putting all of the bets on because it makes them money, however when the blog hits the inevitable lean spell all of the work to put the bets on becomes to much work for little reward so a large number of people will stop following.

    If however you only post one or two selections at the most the majority of people following will still continue to follow through a lean spell because the effort involved by them is not that great.

    I hope that the above makes sense

    Keep up the good work
    Mark

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