Saturday 9 April 2011

Saturday-Grand National

Nice to be back amongst the winners on Friday hopefully a couple more can follow today.

Advised Selections

National

1pt win The midnight Club 11/1 hills
1pt win Ballabriggs 14/1 gen bog
1/2pt each way skippes brig 33/1 vc bog 6 places


1.45 Rock on ruby 4/1
2.15 finnians Rainbow 4/5
2.50 Pedlers Cross 6/4

1/2pt each way treble pp bog

1.45 drive time 1/2pt each way 33/1 gen bog

3.25 take the breeze 1/2pt each way 16/1 pp bog
invisible man 1/2pt win 12/1 pp bog

5.00 Lucaindubai 1/2pt each way 20/1 pp bog
amazing king 1/2pt each way 20/1 pp bog

Grand National

Firslty I think this years race is one of the most difficult of recent years to work out especially now we are seeing a reverse on some of the old previous long standing trends.The current shape of the race now offers more claims to a classier horse.I dont think there is any reason to not expect dont push it to run his race again and of all of last years runners he would be my pick I can see his price only going one way now and he is just to short already.My shortlist of 3 is the midnight club ,ballabriggs and finally skippers brig.I was impressed with tmc last time and he for me is the horse from that race most likely to be suited to this ground has top man on board for this race hes not had as many runs as most winners but for me he has had plenty of experience at a high level and surely ruby counts for a couple of runs.My next 2 both ran against each other lto and I find it hard to split these pair.Ballabriggs has looked a national type for along while now he jumps well and will be one of only a few that will like this ground his handicap form looks solid and his connections sure now how to bring one here.Skippers brig has done most of his racing on softer ground but hes a tough genuine type who is an intresting on breeding lines hes not short of class himself and gets in off a nice weight.The probably has to be how to stake here everyone has there own preference and ill leave it to them but the 6 places with vc makes plenty of appeal.

1.45
Im happy to take a few of the market leaders on here as I just dont think they will at there best on this ground this therefore makes it an easy call for me with rock on ruby who has done nothing wrong this season and should be better suited to a sharper course.Of the outsiders im intrested in drive time who has plenty of scope for improvement and is another who will relish todays conditions.

2.15
I cant see why ghiazao will reverse form with finnains rainbow on this ground and as long as we see the same horse as cheltenham I cant see how he will be beaten,Im sure there are worse odds on shots through the season.

2.50
Binocular comes here the fresh horse but id be happy to take him on over this trip against 2 horses who are probably ideally suited to this distance.Im a big fan of oscar whisky and I expect him to run pedlers cross close again today .Pedlers cross however is as tough as they come ran well at wintree last season which offers faith he will run to his form again today and I cant see past him.

3.25
Ill take bensalem and great endeavour on purely on value terms and I think there marks dont give them much room top move now.Tarablaze on a good day could be well treated but im concerned about the jumping as well with him.Take the breeze is back on a nice mark after 2 runs over a distances to short for him and back over 3miles on decnet ground he should go well like having ruby back on board and went well round this course last season a reproduction of his best form and he has to go close.Invisible man has a doubt about his stamina but im sure he is still on a nice mark and I want to have him on my side here he may travel well and then empty so will be trading him in running myslef rather than e/w just in case he fades badly.

5.00
Typically copmpetive handicap i think the markets tight at the front and the one I like most is red melrin who is a improving with his races and will be well suited to this course and conditions Id put nobody of him.Lucandubai has little to find with via galeieo yet is 3 times the price,he is also likely to be more suited to this course.The other im intrested in is amazing king who on first glance looks up against it upped in grade now but his form recenklty has been solid and his ability to be well suited by race conditions today should help him here.

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